At the China Iron and Steel Industry Association information conference held not long ago, participants said that my country's steel industry is still facing steel supply intensity higher than consumption growth, corporate inventory rising year-on-year, industry profits dropping significantly, and accounts receivable increasing Faster and other difficulties and challenges. How to deal with it effectively deserves the attention of all parties.
Currently, my country's iron and steel industry is gradually reversing last year's sluggish demand. Both the apparent consumption of crude steel and the operating income of key statistical iron and steel enterprises have increased year-on-year. At the same time, the pace of steel supply expansion is faster than the recovery of market demand, steel prices continue to weaken, upstream raw and fuel prices are still relatively high, and the profitability of steel companies needs to be improved.
This situation is mainly due to the obvious increase in economic activity. In the first quarter, the PMI returned to the expansion range. Coupled with the role of speculation funds in the futures market, steel companies are somewhat optimistic about the recovery of downstream demand. Rules are ignored. But at the current stage, the improvement of my country's economic operation is mainly restorative, and the endogenous driving force is not strong yet. Whether it is the operation of the real estate industry, the construction progress of infrastructure projects, or the production rhythm of the manufacturing industry, it is unlikely that there will be an explosive acceleration, which will lead to the expansion of supply in the steel market significantly faster than the recovery of demand. This rapid expansion of the supply side may form actual inventory pressure in the short term, and it will also overdraw the market's expectations for demand recovery, which is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the industry.
From the data point of view, the output of crude steel in the first quarter increased by 6.1% year-on-year, the average daily output of crude steel was at a historical high, and the monthly steel inventory of key enterprises was higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the huge scale of crude steel production in my country, the expansion of production this year has formed a strong support for the price of raw materials and fuels for metallurgy. According to key statistics, the operating costs of iron and steel enterprises have increased by 5.90% year-on-year, which is 3.66 percentage points higher than the increase in revenue. With the increase in inventory, the asset liquidity of iron and steel enterprises has decreased, and accounts receivable have also increased significantly year-on-year. This means that the reproduction capacity of iron and steel enterprises needs to be improved, and the resource input that can be used for research and development and technical transformation will be limited to a certain extent.
However, since April, as the effects of various measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize foreign trade have begun to appear, the signal of downstream demand recovery is gradually strengthening: the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry in April increased by 13.2% year-on-year, 5.3% faster than the previous month percentage points; the retail sales of the home appliance market achieved a year-on-year growth rate and turned positive; the automobile industry continued to recover, and the cumulative production and sales in the first four months turned from negative to positive, of which exports increased by 76.5% year-on-year. These positive signals indicate that the steel industry is expected to recover.
Based on this, we must strengthen our confidence. On the one hand, we must control the rhythm of steel supply in terms of total volume, and pay attention to maintaining the dynamic balance between supply and demand in the steel market; Instead, we should fully, accurately, and comprehensively grasp the development requirements of high-end, intelligent, and green steel industry, organically unify the process of supply recovery with the process of technological upgrading and structural adjustment, and focus on integration and reorganization to continue to promote the development of the industry. Structural optimization and concentration improvement; guided by scientific and technological innovation, continuously improve product technology level and green development capability; take digital transformation as the starting point, continuously improve enterprise management level and cost control ability, and realize the joint construction of the steel industry and upstream and downstream industries , co-governance, and sharing, and continuously improve the level of intelligent manufacturing in the industry.
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