In 2022, my country's apparent consumption of natural gas will be 366.3 billion cubic meters, the first decline in 20 years. This is the news from the 2023 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Industry International Technology Forum and the Fourth National LNG Industry Alliance Conference held in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province from May 11 to 12.
It is understood that in 2022, the national natural gas production will be 217.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; the apparent consumption of natural gas will be 366.3 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. This is the first decline in natural gas consumption in 20 years. At the same time, domestic LNG imports also fell for the first time in nearly seven years, down 19.5% year-on-year, and the dependence on foreign natural gas fell to 40.5%.
Guo Zonghua, chairman of Shaanxi Provincial Gas Design Institute Co., Ltd., and Liu Chunjiang, senior engineer of Changqing Oilfield Company Consulting Center, and other experts believe that since 2022, the delay of the global epidemic, the slowdown of economic growth, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have had a huge impact on the natural gas industry, resulting in the natural gas Supply shortages, rising prices, and markets are extremely sensitive and vulnerable to geopolitical risks.
"The decline in consumption due to high prices shows that there is a 'ceiling' phenomenon in the natural gas market, and the gas price that users can afford is limited." Yang Jianhong, chairman and chief researcher of Beijing Shichuang Energy Consulting Co., Ltd., said that the national natural gas price will be at a high level in 2022. The market is generally weak.
Liu Chunjiang analyzed that the decline in natural gas consumption is mainly due to the economic slowdown affected by the epidemic and the rise in international LNG spot prices, which should only be a temporary phenomenon.
Experts participating in the meeting believe that under the background of global climate change, carbon reduction and emission reduction will provide a large space for natural gas consumption. At present, my country's natural gas accounts for only 8.9% of primary energy consumption, far below the world average level, and the future market demand will still be large.
Yang Jianhong revealed that from the analysis of conventional natural gas and unconventional natural gas resource conditions and current consumption status, global natural gas resources can meet demand for 100 years, and it is still in the development period of natural gas consumption. It is expected that natural gas consumption will show explosive growth by 2040. He suggested that from a policy perspective, the upstream and downstream price linkage mechanism of "gas-gas" and "gas-electricity" should be implemented in place, the relationship between the rigidity of natural gas supply and market flexibility should be properly handled, and the strength of natural gas reserves should be increased.
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