SunSirs commodity price forecast (May 30 2023)

The latest price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide (May 29): 502,500 yuan/ton, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: The light rare earth market has rebounded, and inquiries have increased recently. The price of light rare earths has been falling for a long time in the early stage. Affected by the increase in inquiries, the quotations of the holders are relatively firm, and the actual transaction prices have risen accordingly. Recently, market inquiries and quotations are relatively active, and the transaction volume has increased slightly. In addition, the increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles has benefited the domestic rare earth market; however, the downstream demand has grown slowly, market information is still weak, and the order increase of metal factories is not large. The rare earth market is on the sidelines Emotions remain.

Market outlook forecast: Recently, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, inquiries have increased, and transaction activity has increased. It is expected that the market price of rare earth

will rise in the short term. In the medium and long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and rare earth products will still face shortages , and driven by emerging and traditional needs such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, inverter air conditioners, and consumer electronics, the global rare earth permanent magnet market demand is expected to continue to grow.

The latest price of titanium dioxide (May 29): 16133.33 yuan/ton, the market outlook is weak and stable

Key points of analysis: On May 29, domestic titanium dioxide is currently in the off-season of market demand. The cost pressure of enterprises is relatively high, and some enterprises have reduced production. After sorting out, the inventory pressure still exists, and the market price has been lowered.

Forecast of the market outlook: In the short term, the titanium dioxide market will be on the sidelines, with weak and stable operation, and the actual transaction price will be discussed one by one.

The latest price of iron ore (Australia) (May 29): 801.89 yuan/wet ton, the market outlook will fluctuate

Analysis points: As of noon on the 29th, Sunsir’s iron ore prices rose slightly compared with last Friday, an increase of 1.04%. As of the end of midday, even the iron rose 3.83%. Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and market speculation was active. The willingness of traders to purchase has also been stimulated to improve, and iron ore prices have begun to rebound. On the supply side, the overseas shipments of Australia and Pakistan declined last week, but the arrivals to Hong Kong increased. Overseas shipments resumed periodically, and the supply situation was loose; on the demand side, as coal prices continued to fall, the profits of steel mills further improved after the cost fell, and production The enthusiasm has been boosted, and the output of molten iron has also begun to increase. However, downstream steel demand has entered the off-season, so steel mills' demand for iron ore replenishment is mostly on-demand replenishment. If steel prices continue to weaken, the profit margins of steel mills will shrink, thereby weakening the willingness of steel mills to purchase. The supply and demand side of iron ore maintains a loose trend in the short term, and the fundamentals are not conducive to the upward trend of ore prices.

Forecast of the market outlook: In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the start-up of downstream steel mills. It is expected that short-term ore prices may rise first and then fall, and operate in a wide range of shocks. Futures need to prevent short-term fluctuation risks.

The latest price of dichloromethane (May 29): 2410 yuan / ton, the market outlook will fluctuate

Analysis points: The price on May 29 rose by 3.32% compared with the previous trading day. Since the weekend, the domestic dichloromethane market in Shandong has risen slightly. Exports and downstream users have replenished their warehouses. Short-term concentrated purchases have led to a certain degree of tight supply in the region and stimulated prices to rise slightly. As of May 29, dichloromethane in Shandong has been released. The warehouse price is around 2400-2450 yuan/ton.

Forecast of the market outlook: However, from the perspective of the cost and supply of the entire domestic industry, the operation of the methylene chloride industry chain is still weak, and it is expected that prices will mainly consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.

The latest price of ammonium chloride (May 29): 627 yuan / ton after market adjustment

Analysis points: The price on May 29 fell by 5.28% compared with the previous trading day. The price of raw material liquid ammonia has dropped sharply, and the cost support of ammonium chloride has weakened sharply; recently, some domestic manufacturers in Jiangsu and other places have stopped for maintenance, and the start-up of the combined alkali unit has dropped to around 80% compared with the previous period, but the pressure on the supply side of ammonium chloride is still relatively high; The demand for ammonium chloride from downstream compound fertilizer and extrusion granule enterprises is weak. Market conditions are weak. In addition, the price of urea fell again, which also affected the negative side of ammonium chloride. The ex-factory price of ammonium chloride enterprises has been gradually reduced. As of May 29, the ex-factory price of dry ammonium chloride for agricultural use in East China is between 600 and 650 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: On the whole, the price of liquid ammonia is low, the pressure on the supply side continues, and the downstream demand side is weak. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will be weak in the later stage.

The latest price of hydrogen peroxide (May 29): 773 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bearish

Analysis points: The price on May 29 fell by 7.94% compared with the previous trading day. The domestic hydrogen peroxide market continued to fall, with the mainstream quotation at 700 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 100 yuan/ton. The bullish factors after May Day have been gradually digested by the market, and the terminal demand is weak. Since the middle of the month, the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped from a high platform, and the price has fallen one after another until the end of the month.

Forecast of the market outlook: The terminal demand will not be long, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to remain weak in the market outlook.