Market data shows Russia not cutting oil output as promised

Foreign news on May 26, an analysis of shipping data released on Friday showed that despite Russia's pledge to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day from March, the country's oil production has not decreased in recent months.

The latest tanker-tracking data shows that far from falling, Russia's offshore crude oil exports have increased.

Average four-week crude shipments at Russian export terminals rose for the sixth straight week in the week ended May 19, according to cruise ship tracking data reported by Julian Lee.

Russian crude oil exports averaged nearly 4 million barrels per day over the four-week period, up 15% from the first week of April. And the four-week average export volume hit the highest level since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022.

Russia previously said the 500,000 bpd production cut was planned to last until the end of 2023, but crude export figures in recent weeks have not reflected any cuts - instead, Russian seaborne crude exports are increasing.

Last week, Russia's Energy Agency (IEA) said Russia has so far failed to meet its commitment to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day and it may even seek to increase output to make up for lost revenue.

In its closely watched oil market report, the IEA said exports of Russian crude and refined products continued to be resilient, with exports in April hitting 8.3 million bpd, the highest since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

"According to our estimates, Moscow has not fully implemented the 500,000 barrels per day production cut it announced. In fact, Russia may be increasing production to make up for the loss of revenue."