The latest price of natural rubber (full latex) (May 15): 11,880 yuan/ton, the market outlook will fluctuate
Analysis points: The recent speculation about rubber purchase and storage has pushed the natural rubber market upward. Hujiao once again passed 12,000 points. The mainstream quotation of domestic all-latex rose by 1.87% to about 11,880 yuan/ton in a single day. It is understood that the current news of rubber purchase and storage has not been confirmed, and the market expects that the possibility of purchase and storage is not high. In terms of supply, the phenology of Vietnam is currently good, and rubber tapping is normal. Northeast Thailand has started cutting, but the total output of new rubber has not been much at the beginning; in addition, the market expects that there is a very high possibility of El Nino phenomenon this year, and the global high temperature caused by it will not be harmful to the world. Production areas will have an impact, but at present, my country's ports continue to accumulate rubber imports. The inventory of Qingdao Port is 881,200 tons, exceeding the highest value of 856,900 tons in 2020, and the pressure on rubber supply continues to increase. On the downstream side, demand continues to lack core positive support. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile production and sales in April fell by 17.5% and 11.9% month-on-month respectively; last week, the operating rate of all-steel tires in tire companies was around 70%, and the high-speed stock of finished products was accumulated, and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was currently around 60%. Inventory is relatively slow to accumulate.
Forecast of the market outlook: There is no definite news on whether the purchase and storage will come true. The 12,000 point of Hujiao has been reached. As the spot rubber rises with the market, the market atmosphere has improved slightly, and it is expected that there will be strong shocks in the short term. However, in the medium term, with more supply and less demand, and weak support, natural rubber has no real upward trend.
The latest price of sulfur (May 15): 783.33 yuan / ton, wait and see in the market outlook
Analysis points: On May 15, the domestic sulfur market went up, and the price was generally raised. The on-site refinery equipment is operating normally, the market supply is stable, the trading performance of the terminal industry is average, and the downstream demand support is limited. Sulfur manufacturers have a wait-and-see attitude and focus on active shipments. The price is raised.
Market forecast: Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will run on the sidelines, and the price range will fluctuate.
The latest price of MTBE (May 15): 7612 yuan / ton after market adjustment
Analysis points: The price on May 15 rose by 3.57% compared with the previous trading day. The domestic MTBE market is going up strongly. The news that consumption tax will be levied on products such as isooctane, which is also an oil blending material, will be released over the weekend, prompting manufacturers to significantly increase their ex-factory quotations. At the same time, compared with other gasoline raw materials, MTBE has a larger increase, while the increase of gasoline is limited, and the high price may face certain resistance in the later period.
Forecast of the market outlook: In the short term, the domestic MTBE market will mainly be adjusted at a high level.
The latest price of dichloromethane (May 15): 2412 yuan / ton, the market outlook will fluctuate
Analysis points: On May 15, the price fell by 3.98% from the previous day. The peak season of the downstream third-generation refrigerant R32 is gradually coming to an end, and the support for dichloromethane is weaker than that of the previous period due to the shutdown of some enterprises for maintenance; the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane is still high, and the price of raw material methanol has dropped slightly. The overall fundamentals are weak, and the price of dichloromethane dropped sharply on weekends, and the market quotations fell accordingly.
Forecast of the market outlook: Looking at the market outlook, on the one hand, the price of raw material methanol has been consolidating at a low level recently, and the domestic supply of dichloromethane is still under pressure. It is expected that the market of dichloromethane will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
The latest price of liquefied petroleum gas (May 15): 4398 yuan / ton, the market outlook is bearish
Analysis points: The price on May 15 fell by 4.14% compared with the previous trading day. Due to the continued weak downstream demand, domestic liquefied gas prices fell sharply during the weekend, and the market continued to decline on Monday, with the decline narrowing to around 50 yuan/ton. The international oil price continued to decline, and the negative news continued to affect the market. Under the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the wait-and-see attitude of the liquefied gas market strengthened.
Forecast of the market outlook: The current price of liquefied petroleum gas has dropped to a staged low, but the market is weak and difficult to change, and downstream operations are cautious. It is expected that the liquefied petroleum gas market will continue to decline in the short term.
The latest price of aniline (May 15): 10,650 yuan/ton, the market outlook is bearish
Analysis points: The price on May 15 fell by 5.54% compared with the previous trading day. The profit of aniline is high, and downstream profits are compressed. The downstream is resistant to high-priced raw materials, and the receipt of goods is slow. In order to promote good shipments, aniline factories have rationally lowered prices.
Forecast of the future market: terminal demand weakens, coupled with the arrival of high temperature in summer, the downstream start-up load is expected to decline, aniline is generally sold, and the market is under pressure. It is expected that the aniline market will continue to be weak in the short term, and the price is expected to continue to drop in the next few days.
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