At 15:00 on April 20, the People's Bank of China held a press conference to answer questions from reporters on the financial statistics for the first quarter of 2023.
According to Ruan Jianhong, Director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China and spokesman, the macro leverage ratio is the ratio of total debt to GDP. In 2022, my country's macro leverage ratio will be 281.6%, which is 9.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. The increase in the macro leverage ratio not only objectively reflects the disturbance of external shocks to economic growth, but also reflects that countercyclical policies help stabilize the macroeconomic market.
According to preliminary calculations, the macro leverage ratio in the first quarter of this year was 289.6%, 8 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. There are certain seasonal reasons for the current rebound in the macro leverage ratio. From the perspective of historical data, changes in the macro leverage ratio have very obvious seasonal characteristics, that is, they tend to rebound more in the first quarter than in the previous year, and the growth rate is the first in all quarters of the year. This seasonal characteristic is related to credit supply and The seasonal characteristics of economic growth are closely related.
In recent years, among the new debts of the non-financial sector, the proportion of new loans has basically remained at more than 70%. Therefore, the pace of loan issuance has a relatively obvious impact on the changes in the macro leverage ratio. The first quarter is the peak of credit extension. New loans in the first quarter of 2021-2022 accounted for about 40% of the annual loans. During the same period, affected by the Spring Festival factors, the scale of GDP in the first quarter is often at the lowest level in all quarters of the year. The two seasonal characteristics of the quarterly high of credit supply and the quarterly low of GDP growth are superimposed on each other, resulting in a relatively large increase in the macro leverage ratio in the first quarter.
In addition, in the first quarter of this year, the economy is still in the process of recovery, the financial system has increased its support for the real economy, and factors such as pre-issued government bonds have also strengthened the seasonal characteristics of the macro leverage ratio. At present, my country's economic recovery and development momentum is good, which will help the macro leverage ratio to remain basically stable throughout the year.
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