In the first half of this year, the potash market continued to decline. According to statistics from the Salt Lake Information Network of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd., the price of potassium carbonate fell from 9,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of this year to around 7,000 yuan at the end of June this year. Industry insiders predict that the price of potassium carbonate will drop slowly in the third quarter, and will be weakly organized in the range of 6,200 to 7,000 yuan.
Regarding the reasons for the drop in potassium carbonate prices in the first half of the year, Yuan Zhong, an analyst of the potassium industry at Salt Lake Information Network, explained that the manufacturing costs of potassium carbonate are different due to the different processing techniques. The raw materials of the ion exchange process and the potassium hydroxide carbonization process are ultimately affected by the price of potassium chloride. In the first half of the year, when the costs of electricity prices, energy consumption, labor, and packaging were stable, the rise and fall of potassium chloride directly affected the production cost of potassium carbonate.
From the perspective of consumption, potassium carbonate production enterprises are highly concentrated, and the production capacity of the top three enterprises accounts for about 70% of the national production capacity. Potassium carbonate is not the main raw material in most downstream industries, and downstream industries are not too sensitive to its price. In addition, each enterprise has more individual needs, and the market channels of each potassium carbonate production enterprise are relatively stable. Overall, the total consumption of potassium carbonate has not changed significantly in the first half of this year.
For the market of potassium carbonate in the second half of the year, Yuan Zhong analyzed that in terms of cost, there is little room for the price of potassium chloride to fall again in the second half of this year, and the potassium carbonate market will not experience a sharp drop in the first half of the year from the cost side. In addition, compared with the direct sale of potassium hydroxide, it is still profitable to convert potassium hydroxide into potassium carbonate. Under this background, the supply of potassium carbonate market, which is already oversupplied, will increase in the short term. The oversupply situation will intensify. From the perspective of demand, the total consumption of potassium carbonate has not changed significantly in the second half of the year, but some enterprises that use light potassium carbonate will switch to ultra-fine heavy potassium carbonate driven by interests. The stable downstream order of potassium carbonate will be broken, and the price will slow down. decline.
On the whole, it is expected that the potassium carbonate market will show a short-term weak consolidation trend in the second half of this year, and the potassium carbonate market will bottom out and stabilize in the fourth quarter. (Ginger Xiaomao)
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