Since it was listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on July 21, the lithium carbonate futures market has fluctuated violently and experienced a "roller coaster" market. At present, the lithium carbonate futures market is showing a slight shock, and the long-short game continues.
Two trading days before the listing, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2401 continued to fall sharply. On the third day, it rebounded strongly by the daily limit, an increase of 6.99%, and closed at 225,900 yuan (ton price, the same below). trend. As of August 2, the main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up 0.04% to 228,550 yuan, down about 7% from the benchmark price of 246,000 yuan.
The analysis of Jinrui Futures believes that there are uncertainties in the forward supply and demand of listed futures contracts, but the current market expectations for the oversupply of lithium carbonate in 2024 are more consistent. Recently, the market has fluctuated violently, and the emotional game of speculative funds is the main one. Extreme situations are more likely to occur in the initial stage of listing.
"The lithium carbonate futures market is still dominated by speculative transactions. There is no restriction on spot delivery within the year, and the industry's participation is limited." According to the analysis of SDIC Anxin Futures, the current quotations at the mine end are still stable, and the cost of importing foreign mines to produce lithium carbonate is in the range Around 230,000 yuan, profit margins still lead to heavy supply. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission requires the expansion of new energy vehicle consumption, support for new energy vehicles to go to the countryside, and the continuation of policies such as purchase tax reduction and exemption, which will help improve demand in the second half of the year. It is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will stabilize, with 220,000 yuan as the strength limit range for operation.
Guosen Futures believes that the fundamentals of lithium carbonate in July will still maintain a high growth rate of supply and a weak recovery in demand, and the output will continue to increase in August. Will maintain a wide range of shocks.
Lithium carbonate futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot market was hardly optimistic. At present, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped to 274,000 yuan, continuing the downward trend. The sentiment in the spot market is still pessimistic, and the abundant supply of goods continues to guide the price center of gravity to move down.
"The current lithium carbonate spot market supply maintains a steady growth, and the fundamental logic has not changed significantly. The market tends to be a long-short game, and the spot tight balance sentiment is weak." Zhang Ruoyi, a researcher at GF Futures, analyzed.
Wei Chaoming, an analyst at Founder Mid-Term Futures, also holds the same attitude. "From the perspective of supply, the salt lake in Qinghai is currently in the golden period of production, most of the lithium salt plants are at full capacity, and the supply of lithium carbonate is stable and sufficient. Affected by the Chengdu Universiade in Sichuan, individual smelters have suspended or reduced production. The supply of lithium has declined slightly. The mines in Jiangxi have gradually resumed operation, and the supply of lepidolite has resumed. In particular, the leading enterprises have resumed work well, and the production of lithium carbonate is on the rise. In terms of inventory, lithium salt factories mostly rely on supplying orders from old customers Mainly, the delivery of long-term cooperative orders, the market volume of loose orders is insufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating, which is at a high level. On the demand side, the follow-up of downstream demand is poor, battery companies have a strong willingness to lower the price of cathode materials, and the sentiment towards lower prices of lithium carbonate continues. Only maintain a small amount of purchases just needed." Wei Chaoming said.
Regarding the trend of the lithium carbonate spot market in 2023, Lin Jiani, a researcher at GF Futures, believes that the overall supply and demand of lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively tight balance. Since the beginning of this year, the upstream production of lithium carbonate has continued to advance. The supply of lithium mines in Australia is relatively stable. The lithium mine projects invested by Chinese-funded enterprises in Africa are progressing smoothly. It is expected that lithium mines will arrive in Hong Kong in the second half of the year, and domestic projects will gradually form effective increments. With the subsequent slowdown in demand growth and the release of upstream production capacity, it is expected that the gap between supply and demand of lithium carbonate will continue to narrow from the third quarter of this year. In the first quarter of 2024, there may be a phased surplus of supply. Fundamental logic supports the downward adjustment of the forward price center.
Jinrui Futures also believes that the supply and demand pattern in the short-term lithium carbonate market is not obviously out of balance, but with the significant increase in supply next year, the future supply and demand will be dominated by excess, and the fundamental trend of lithium carbonate will gradually weaken. (Liu Jingcai)
微信扫一扫打赏
