Recently, the caprolactam market bottomed out and rebounded after entering July, with a large increase. As of August 8, the spot market price of caprolactam in the East China market was 13,200 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 1,450 yuan from the low point in July.
"Under the dual support of cost and supply, it is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to maintain a strong situation in the near future, and the price focus will follow the fluctuations of raw materials." Longzhong Information caprolactam analyst Zhuang Xiaohua and other industry insiders believe.
Strong cost support
Pure benzene is the main factor affecting the price of caprolactam. "Since July, the price of pure benzene, the main raw material of caprolactam, has risen strongly. Sinopec's listing price of pure benzene has increased by 1,000 yuan to 7,200 yuan, an increase of 16.13%. The prices of auxiliary materials hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, and synthetic ammonia have also increased by 37.31%, 5.88%, and 13.21% respectively The increase in the price of main and auxiliary materials directly pushed up the comprehensive cost of caprolactam by 16.12%.
Rising international crude oil prices also boosted prices of chemical products. Recently, international crude oil prices have continued to rise. As of August 4, the settlement price of the main contract of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 81.55 US dollars per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.82%; the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures on Intercontinental Exchange It was 85.14 US dollars per barrel, up 1.07% from the previous month.
"Bolstered by factors such as rising crude oil prices, improving supply and demand patterns, and increased demand for ethylbenzene driven by the consumption tax on refined oil, the price of pure benzene continues to fluctuate at high levels," said Zhuang Xiaohua.
Looking at the later period, the support of crude oil production cuts remains solid, news of tighter market supply and China's plan to introduce economic stimulus policies still bring benefits to the market. According to the analysis of Zhuo Chuang Information, calculated according to the current crude oil price, the rate of change of crude oil at the beginning of the new pricing cycle is still in the positive range, and it is initially estimated to be around 175 yuan. On the whole, crude oil prices may fluctuate at a high level, and the expectation of consecutive rises still exists, and the raw material side still supports the pure benzene market.
"The resources of hydrogen peroxide as an auxiliary material are tight, and the current inventory is at a low level. Although there is cost pressure downstream, the continuous procurement of enterprises makes it impossible for the company to significantly reduce prices. The short-term price may continue to fluctuate at a high level." Xue Dongmei, hydrogen peroxide analyst at Longzhong Information explain.
The supply of goods in circulation is tight
"On July 21, the overall operating rate of caprolactam was 81.33%. Except for some devices that were shut down for a long time, other devices basically operated normally. At present, the market is on an upward trend, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is relatively strong, and the supply of caprolactam in some northern regions is still slightly tight." Zhuang Xiaohua said.
"Cangzhou Xuyang Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 150,000-ton/year caprolactam overhaul unit was originally planned to restart in early July, but it was finally delayed, which made the recovery of caprolactam supply in July less than expected, and some companies that had superimposed the previous supply of spot goods turned to self-use. As a result, the spot quantity of caprolactam is tight, and manufacturers maintain low inventories." Gong Yuqian said.
At present, the 400,000 tons/year caprolactam unit of Nanjing DSM Oriental Chemical Co., Ltd. is operating at 50% load; at the end of July and the first ten days of August, the 100,000 tons/year unit of Zhejiang Juhua and the 140,000 tons of Hubei Sanning Chemical Co., Ltd. The ton/year caprolactam unit has a one-week maintenance plan; in August, Sinopec Baling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced the shutdown of a 100,000-ton/year caprolactam unit; Short-term maintenance plan, these will exacerbate the trend of tight supply in the caprolactam market.
Steady follow-up of demand
"In July, the overall operating rate of downstream nylon 6 (PA6) has increased, and the demand for caprolactam has increased. As the raw material inventory of PA6 enterprises remains low, caprolactam has maintained a relatively stable just-needed replenishment. The steady follow-up of demand has a positive effect on The price of caprolactam has formed a positive support." Gong Yuqian said.
"Recently, the utilization rate of PA6 polymerization capacity has risen simultaneously with that of caprolactam, which has increased to around 76%; the weekly production of PA6 slices and caprolactam has simultaneously increased to nearly 100,000 tons. Due to the low inventory of raw materials in PA6 enterprises, with the overall PA6 polymerization As the operating rate increases, the consumption of caprolactam will increase." Zhuang Xiaohua said.
Although the demand for caprolactam is single, the demand for its downstream PA6 is diverse. At present, under the support of the recovery of high-speed spinning demand, PA6 polymerization has started well, and the demand for PA6 high-speed spinning in the later period is still relatively optimistic. Conventional spinning and chipping companies are under pressure to follow up simultaneously. However, due to the low inventory of raw materials in the terminal link, there are also some rigid procurement needs. In addition, conventional spinning and chipping companies in the north have more self-owned raw materials, and the current operation remains stable. These benefits support the caprolactam market.
Industry insiders analyzed that under the premise of overcapacity in the industry, the future market will still need to pay attention to the driving force of rising costs and the process of transmission to the downstream. At the same time, we should also pay attention to supply changes and downstream demand feedback. (Wang Hongzhen)
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