Recently, when the PTA2309 and 2401 contracts were switched, the overall crude oil operation was strong. On the one hand, downstream polyester still maintains a start-up load of more than 92% under the condition of a high production base; on the other hand, PTA fluctuates intensified, and the overall operation is strong, but the increase is obviously not as good as that of crude oil, which leads to the profit compression of the PTA industry chain and the loss of production enterprises The range expanded.
Obvious support on the cost side
Crude oil is the anchor for the pricing of many downstream chemicals, and the current mainstream view of crude oil in the market is still positive. On the macro level, expectations of a soft landing in the European and American economies have continued to strengthen, and the pressure on the Fed to continue raising interest rates has eased. Fundamentally, Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to cut production in September, and the supply gap of more than 2 million continued to strengthen concerns about supply. Fundamentals and macros together push crude oil to remain strong before the macro window opens in September.
PX is the raw material of PTA, and its price will have a direct impact on the processing fee and absolute price of PTA. In addition to the help of crude oil, the demand for gasoline adjustment will also support the price of PX. Strong gasoline demand can easily boost the PX boom in one direction. The refined oil market is much larger than the aromatics market, and the prosperity of large industries can easily drive small industries. According to BP statistics, the refined oil market is an order of magnitude higher than the aromatics market. When the benefits of gasoline are good, the demand for reformed gasoline/toluene/mixed xylene and other products in the oil adjustment pool will be greatly increased, thereby crowding out the raw material supply of PX and driving the prosperity of PX in the same direction.
Conversely, when the gasoline boom is low, part of the mixed xylene used for oil adjustment will flow to chemical applications, and there may be a short-term increase in raw materials for PX production. However, the production capacity of short-process production equipment with MX as raw material is relatively small. According to statistics, the proportion of short-process devices in Asia is about 9%, and the proportion of short-process devices in my country is about 6%. When MX flows from oil adjustment purposes to chemical applications, the impact on the supply side is relatively limited, so when the gasoline boom is low, it is not easy to reversely affect the PX boom. The current international gasoline cracking has returned strongly after the callback. Although the market is concerned about the subsequent oil adjustment market, the current strong gasoline cracking will form a continuous positive feedback on the price of PX.
Inventory is at a low level during the same period
The data shows that as of August 10, the net processing fee of PTA spot was -8 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, the lowest value in the same period in history, and a month-on-month decrease of 107 yuan/ton. Historically, such situations have been rare and unsustainable. Domestic PTA manufacturers have a high degree of head concentration, of which the top six companies account for as much as 72% of their production capacity, and their maintenance and restart will have an impact on market supply. According to the industry practice of annual inspection and maintenance of PTA devices, the number of domestic devices that have not been repaired for more than 12 months is as high as 7.8 million tons, accounting for as high as 9.9%, and they are all large-scale devices of leading enterprises, which are worthy of vigilance.
Since the end of May this year, polyester has been lifted to a high of more than 90%, and continued to rise to a high of 93.5% in mid-July. Although it has declined slightly since then, the start of work has continued to be above 92%. Under the condition of high production base, polyester maintains a relatively high start-up, which provides strong support for PTA at the raw material end. Judging from the current inventory of finished products in polyester factories, the POY inventory with the largest output is 13.2 days, an increase of 1.9 days from the previous month, which is lower than the 36.8 days in the same period last year and 20 days lower than the historical average of the same period in the past five years. The inventory of other varieties is also at a low level in the same period of history. , there is no pressure to expand the library. In addition, the overall profit of polyester is acceptable. On the whole, polyester factories do not have a direct drive to reduce the load, and high operating rates will continue.
Besides, the terminal market is at a key point in the transition of clothing sales to autumn and winter clothing. Clothing wholesale markets and garment factories are starting to prepare autumn and winter clothing one after another. Some printing and dyeing companies have also begun to report that orders for autumn and winter fabrics have increased, and terminal demand has begun to improve marginally. , "Golden September Silver October" demand season is still worth looking forward to.
To sum up, industrial profits are mainly concentrated on the PX side. Driven by the strong gasoline cracking, PXN will return to more than 400 US dollars/ton, further consolidating the bottom of PTA. In addition, the processing fee has turned negative. Considering that the high start of polyester production may continue to the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October", PTA's valuation depression will appear.
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