In the recent stage, with the help of the strong increase in raw materials, not only the polyester market has improved, but the price of nylon has also ushered in a strong rise. As of August 10, the mainstream transactions of nylon DTY70D/24F semi-dull centered at 18,000-19,500. It rose 7.14% from the beginning of July, which was the peak of the year.
On the one hand, with the rise in the price of PA6, the cost of nylon raw materials has increased, and the nylon industry has been in a state of long-term loss. Under the mentality of reducing losses, the price of nylon has followed. On the other hand, the demand for "off-season is not short" is also supporting the price rise. As far as the textile industry is concerned, terminal demand has shown a downward trend since May, and will gradually enter the off-season. Affected by this, the start of work in the downstream weaving field of nylon usually shows a downward trend from June to July, but the start of work in the field of looms has not fallen this year, and the overall start-up level remains relatively good around 66%.
In addition, as the market prices from raw materials to nylon continue to rise, and the price of nylon has risen at a relatively low level in the past three years, the "buying up" atmosphere has stimulated downstream weaving companies to continue to buy goods, further driving demand The increase will play a supporting role in the rise of nylon prices.
The top is hot and the bottom is cold, or it may turn into top cold and bottom heat, and the nylon market may be expected to fall from a high level
From the current stage, the price of raw materials has opened a downward channel. Although there is still upward space for pure benzene at the cost end, the market price of caprolactam is struggling to keep up with the rise, and with the recovery of unplanned maintenance of the previous equipment, the overall supply has increased, and the downstream PA6 raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, or it may temporarily enter the stage of consuming raw material inventory, so The supply of caprolactam will be gradually tightened gradually, and there will be room for caprolactam to fall back later.
Although PA6 has no finished product inventory pressure at this stage, the demand of the nylon industry in the main downstream areas has not changed significantly, and due to the slow economic recovery and slow overseas demand, the demand may not be as good as expected; moreover, PA6 has 16 stocks at the end of August. The new production capacity of 10,000 tons is planned to be put into production, and the situation of overcapacity in the industry may intensify, which has a relatively negative effect on the market mentality. Therefore, under the expectation of falling cost and increasing supply of PA6, there may be a risk of falling from the end of August to September, which will be negative for the price trend of nylon.
In addition, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified due to the increase in nylon production capacity. From August to September, the nylon industry is expected to add 100,000 tons of production capacity to 4.53 million tons. At present, there is no maintenance plan for the nylon industry, and the supply of the nylon industry may increase significantly from August to September.
However, from the perspective of the terminal, the current textile market is in the traditional off-season. With the approach of "Golden September and Silver October", the market expects the market to improve and the confidence of enterprises will rebound.
Grey fabrics in Jiangsu: The downstream home textile market is relatively stable, with many inquiries and few actual orders. The gray fabric factory has insufficient orders, the price is negotiable, the market is weakening, and the profit situation is not ideal. The external orders of dyeing factories have improved slightly, and the operating rate of factories has picked up. The prices of raw materials are strong, and there are concerns about the risks in the future market.
Jiangsu yarn-dyed fabrics: The overall market continues to be sluggish, downstream customer inquiries have increased slightly, follow-up orders have not improved significantly, and the operating rate has basically remained at the previous level. The price of upstream raw materials fluctuated at a high level, and the price of cotton yarn rose to varying degrees. Among them, the price of medium and low-count cotton yarn increased by a large margin, and most enterprises purchased according to their needs. The prices of fabric products were slightly raised locally, but the overall prices were relatively stable, and the cost pressure of enterprises increased. Most enterprises take a cautious wait-and-see attitude, expecting a significant improvement in the market outlook.
Guangdong denim: Cotton prices continued to run at a high level, denim yarn prices rose slightly, and the shipment price of pure cotton OE10 English yarn fluctuated in the range of 16,500 yuan/ton. The price of indigo dye is relatively stable, and the price is about 55,000 yuan/ton. The production orders of enterprises are stable, and the operating rate has declined. Insufficient market demand, high raw material prices, and declining profits.
Zhejiang Lanxi Gray Cloth: As the price of raw materials continues to rise, the cost of raw materials for enterprises has increased; the downstream orders basically maintain the previous situation, but the transmission of product prices is blocked; the factory start-up barely maintains normal, but the inventory has increased . In the later period, if the price of yarn raw materials continues to rise, the price of fabrics may increase, and we look forward to the coming of the golden nine silver ten peak seasons.
Pure cotton fabrics in Hubei: The recent market atmosphere has remained flat, inquiries and proofing have increased, and actual orders have not changed much. Thick and thick varieties are more popular, and the operating rate is the same as the previous period. The price of raw materials has risen recently, and the purchase should be kept as you use it. September is coming, looking forward to the market to pick up.
Although it is about to enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the slow recovery of terminal textile and clothing exports will directly drag down the domestic textile and clothing orders, making it difficult to increase the demand for nylon. On the whole, the price of nylon is currently at the peak of the year, and nylon may be affected by the fall of the cost side and the intensification of supply and demand contradictions in August-September, there is a certain risk of fall, and the price at this stage may become the peak of the year.
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