Recently, the 2023 China Methanol Industry Conference was held in Nanjing, Jiangsu. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, my country's methanol production capacity will reach 100.41 million tons per year in 2023, exceeding the 100 million tons mark. At the same time, the conference announced the list of the top 20 methanol production enterprises in China in 2023. The National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co., Ltd., and Shandong Energy Group Co., Ltd. ranked the top three.
In 2023, the global political economy is complicated, the energy situation is increasingly severe, the high cost of domestic raw materials and the downward pressure on the market coexist. my country's methanol industry has overcome difficulties and forged ahead, and its development has achieved results.
The total production capacity exceeded 100 million tons. Gu Zongqin, chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, pointed out that methanol has become the second petrochemical product with a production capacity of more than 100 million tons in addition to oil refining in my country.
From the analysis of the growth rate, the production capacity increased by 3.1% year-on-year, the growth rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points, and the net increase was 2.98 million tons/year, which was a decrease compared with previous years. Last year, only one million tons and above projects in Inner Mongolia Jiutai The set of devices was put into production. The main reason for the slowdown in production capacity growth is that, on the one hand, it is affected by the national energy consumption control policy; on the other hand, the continuous downturn in the methanol market affects investment enthusiasm.
From the analysis of the types of raw materials for new production capacity, the number of projects using coke oven gas as raw material has increased significantly. In the past two years, as many as ten sets of new production equipment have been put into operation, with a total production capacity of more than 2 million tons per year. This not only optimizes the structure of the methanol industry, but also It is in line with the industrial development direction of national environmental protection and comprehensive utilization of resources. By the end of 2023, the country's methanol production capacity using coke oven gas as raw material will be 12.58 million tons per year, accounting for 12.5% of the total production capacity.
The growth rate of production has slowed down. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, my country's methanol production will be 80.225 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, the lowest increase in five years, which is directly related to the low prosperity of the methanol industry chain.
According to Gu Zongqin's analysis, the output of coal head was 67.941 million tons, accounting for 84.7% of the total output, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year; the output of methanol from coke oven gas was 7.262 million tons, accounting for 9.1% of the total output, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year; 3%。 Natural gas methanol output remained stable, accounting for 6.3% of the total. In coal-to-methanol production, the production capacity of coal monoalcohol units using new advanced coal gasification technology is 72.28 million tons per year, accounting for 72% of the total production capacity, an increase of 6% year-on-year; the output reached 65.7 million tons, accounting for 82% of the total production, A year-on-year increase of 3%.
Gu Zongqin pointed out that the output of large-scale devices with a scale of more than 1 million tons per year is 44.15 million tons, accounting for 55% of the total output, an increase of 6.2%, and the main pillar of large-scale, high-efficiency coal-to-methanol devices is significant. However, it is worth noting that the growth rate of this part of production has been maintained at around 9% to 20% for many years, and 2023 is the lowest value in recent years. Most of the units above the million-ton level are equipped with olefins, and the main reason for the slowdown in production growth is related to the decline in profits in the olefins market.
Rising coal prices further squeeze the profit margin of methanol. According to Gu Zongqin's analysis, the average price of methanol in 2023 will be 2,661 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 5%. This price level is not low compared with previous years, even the second highest in the past ten years, only 152 yuan/ton lower than 2018, when the industry's overall benefits were better, but the company's profitability is far different, showing as The phenomenon that the price of methanol is high but not profitable.
Analyzing from the cost side, the main raw material for methanol production in my country is coal, and the price of coal has been running at a high level since the second half of 2021. Taking bituminous coal as an example, according to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the average ex-factory price of bituminous coal in 2023 will be 1373 yuan/ton, which will increase by 20% on the basis of the high price in 2021, far exceeding the increase in methanol prices. The "inversion" of methanol profits has intensified, and losses have further expanded. Some coal-to-methanol enterprises have had to stop, reduce or switch production due to unbearable cost pressures. In comparison, the profitability of methanol from natural gas and coke oven gas is slightly better, because its output accounts for only 15.3%, which is not enough to improve the overall profitability of the industry.
Methanol imports showed a slight increase. In 2023, my country will import 12.192 million tons of methanol, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. There are 8 months in the whole year that the import volume is higher than that of the same period in 2021, and the increase is mainly concentrated in April to August, of which the highest is 1.252 million tons in July. According to Gu Zongqin's analysis, the main reason is that during this period, the gas restriction of Iran's installations has been eased, some installations have resumed production, and production and shipments have remained high. Imports were the lowest in February, which is also closely related to Iran's gas restrictions. Among the sources of methanol imports, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Americas are still the main countries, and the top four are Middle Eastern countries, Oman, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 75% of the total imports.
Downstream demand is generally weak. It is understood that in the past two years, the growth rate of the total apparent consumption of methanol has slowed down and remained at around 4%. The apparent consumption in 2023 will be 92.24 million tons. The decrease in consumption growth rate is directly related to the weak economy of the methanol industry chain. Affected by the epidemic and the macroeconomic environment, the economic operation of the downstream consumption of methanol will remain weak in 2023.
The downstream consumption pattern of methanol has not changed much, and coal (methanol) to olefins still occupies the first place, but the growth rate of coal (methanol) to olefins production capacity has slowed down significantly in the past two years. Although three sets of 1 million tons/year equipment were put into operation last year , but the operating load is not high. Methanol fuel has developed rapidly due to its unique environmental protection and economy, ranking second, but the rise in methanol prices has limited the increase in methanol fuel consumption to a certain extent. Formaldehyde and acetic acid rank third and fourth respectively, and both have new production capacity released, but due to weak downstream demand, the start-up load is not high.
Gu Zongqin pointed out that as the popular downstream BDO and DMC, the production capacity expanded rapidly, there was an imbalance between supply and demand, and the market price fell sharply; other traditional downstream consumption did not change much. In general, under the circumstance of strong cost and weak demand, the profit distribution of methanol industry chain continues to be unbalanced, and profits are shifted upwards, mainly concentrated on the coal side, resulting in most of the methanol downstream industry chain being in a state of loss, and the overall operating pressure is still very high. (Ginger Xiaomao)
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