In the first quarter, the national policy of stabilizing growth continued to increase, major projects accelerated, effective investment continued to expand, and the overall economic operation showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. The National Bureau of Statistics recently released data that in the first quarter, the national cement output was 402.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The cement industry generally presents the economic operation characteristics of "weak recovery of demand and unabated market pressure".
"In the first quarter, the national cement market demand gradually returned to normal, and the cumulative output achieved a small increase year-on-year. According to analyst Wang Xiaoliang, the national monthly cement output in March was 206 million tons, a substantial increase of 10.4% year-on-year, the highest level in the same period in history.
Combined with the cement shipment rate monitored by the Digital Cement Network, the national cement market demand in the first quarter showed a slight year-on-year growth trend. According to Wang Xiaoliang, the increase in demand is mainly due to the relatively early Spring Festival holiday this year, the market start earlier than in previous years, and the adverse weather factors have less impact. The southern region has basically resumed normal construction in March, and the demand in the northern region has also gradually increased. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta, Demand in hotspot areas such as the Pearl River Delta recovered rapidly. In addition, the rapid growth of infrastructure investment and the acceleration of key engineering projects have supported a significant year-on-year increase in demand in some regions. In March, the cement market demand has recovered to a good level.
From the perspective of inventory, in the first quarter, with the continuous recovery of cement demand and the strict implementation of staggered production by enterprises, cement inventory decreased month by month, but the inventory level was still at a historical high. According to the monitoring of the China Cement Association, the cement storage capacity ratio in the first quarter was 67%, 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. "From the end of March to the beginning of April, it should have been the peak season for the traditional demand of the cement industry, but the performance of the cement market demand was not so strong in the peak season, and the inventory did not fall but increased, and the rate of increase was relatively fast. In mid-April, the national cement inventory reached the same period of nearly five years. At the highest point, the storage capacity ratio is close to the high level of 70%." Wang Xiaoliang said that facing the multiple challenges of weak demand, high cost, high inventory, and low efficiency, the operating pressure of cement enterprises in various places has doubled, and they can only continue to adopt staggered peak production during the peak season to alleviate it. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market keeps the market relatively stable.
In the first quarter, the overall domestic cement market price showed a slight upward trend. According to monitoring data from the China Cement Association, the average transaction price in the national cement market in the first quarter was 429 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.5% from the previous quarter, but it fell by 87 yuan/ton compared with the first quarter of last year.
In terms of sub-regions, cement prices in the six major regions all fell sharply year-on-year. Among them, the Northeast and Northwest regions had the largest decline, both exceeding 122 yuan/ton; the southwest region with the smallest decline also reached 44 yuan/ton; wait.
In the first quarter, cement prices in North China and Northeast China showed a downward trend. Even if the market entered the demand period, the price did not rebound; East China, South Central, Southwest and Northwest China showed a fluctuating upward trend. Among them, the eastern and central southern regions led the national cement price to rebound. With the recovery of downstream demand, as of the middle and late March, the regional average price in East China and Central South China has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival, and the cumulative increase in some provinces has reached 60 yuan/ton; cement enterprises in southwest and northwest regions In order to improve the profitability, prices have also been raised one after another, with the average price slightly increased by 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton.
Although cement prices bottomed out and rebounded slightly in the first quarter, due to the high cost of raw materials and fuels such as coal, the company's production line shutdown period was longer, cost allocation increased, and the price adjustment did not fully cover the cost increase, resulting in the cement industry in the first quarter. into a loss situation. Wang Xiaoliang said that it is expected that the sales revenue of the cement industry in the first quarter will decline sharply year-on-year.
"Demand in the domestic cement market has recovered moderately, but due to the poor performance of demand in the real estate market, only relying on unilateral pull in infrastructure investment, and with the expansion of the decline in the area of new real estate construction, the basis for overall demand stabilization is not solid. "Wang Xiaoliang believes that looking forward to the second quarter, the weak operation of the domestic cement market will still be the main trend. First, there are few new real estate projects, and the shortage of funds for municipal or civil projects under construction is still prominent, and the recovery of cement demand is obviously insufficient; second, there are gaps in the number of new key construction projects and local development in different regions between the north and the south, and the regional differentiation of cement demand Seriously, liquidity competition still exists; thirdly, the length of off-peak production in different regions and the implementation of enterprises are different. Under the background of weak supply and demand relationship, the market balance is easily broken, the difficulty of maintaining price stability is increasing, and the stability of industry benefits is facing the test.
Currently, the cement industry is still under heavy pressure, and it is necessary to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand in the market from the supply side. "It needs to be emphasized that, as an industry with severe excess capacity, the cement industry must unswervingly adhere to supply-side structural reforms, curb new capacity, eliminate outdated capacity, and focus on strengthening the supply chain of the industrial chain." The executive meeting of the China Cement Association Chang Kong Xiangzhong pointed out that the cement industry must adhere to normalized peak-staggered production, strengthen industry self-discipline and integrity, maintain a fair market competition environment, achieve stable growth, adjust structure, and increase efficiency; continue to adhere to technological innovation, increase technological innovation and new technology applications investment to realize industry transformation and upgrading. (Zhu Junbi)
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