Since mid-April, domestic coal tar (mainly referring to high-temperature coal tar) has ushered in a sharp dive. As of the end of April, the domestic mainstream transaction price of coal tar fell below 3,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the low-end prices in Wuhai, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and other places in Inner Mongolia even fell to 2,300-2,600 yuan, a month-on-month drop of more than 38%. Statistics from SunSirs show that as of May 10, the reference price of domestic coal tar was 2,700 yuan, a drop of 10% compared to 3,000 yuan on May 1. The industry generally believes that it is difficult to find high-level support for the coal tar market in the short term.
"The increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises has led to an increase in the supply of goods, while the operating rate of deep-processing enterprises has not risen but has fallen. The increase in supply and demand has decreased. Factors stabilized the market, and many mainstream products in the downstream industry chain also fell sharply across the board, and the entire coal tar deep-processing industry chain experienced a general decline, which also weakened the confidence in the price stability of the upstream market and became a linkage factor that helped promote the market's dive. "Henan Trader Li Bing said.
The operating rate of coke enterprises has increased
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that my country's coke output in March was 41.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. National coke production statistics show that the output of high-temperature coal tar in March was around 1.6712 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.01%. "In March, the domestic coal tar market has started the first round of diving after the Spring Festival. The price dropped from 5,600 yuan at the beginning of March to around 4,600 yuan at the end of the month. But the first round of diving was relatively gentle and lasted for a month. Among them, the increase in production is the main factor leading to the decline in the market." Said the person in charge of a coking company in Pingmei Shenma.
According to Li Bing, the sample data of 230 independent coke enterprises across the country in April showed that the domestic production capacity utilization rate was 78.4% that month, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. The re-increase in production has made enterprises feel the pressure of inventory, while traders are afraid to purchase. This stalemate stabilized briefly in early April. After entering the middle and late April, Jiaoqi adjusted its shipping policy and implemented the strategy of reducing inventory, while the rapid profits of traders accelerated the release of the downward momentum, which led to a rapid dive of more than 38% under the combined effect.
Load of deep processing decreased
Statistics from the Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association show that the average operating rate of domestic coal tar deep-processing enterprises was around 46% in April, a decrease of 2% month-on-month. "Affected by the shrinking terminal consumption, the sharp decline in the raw material market, and the maintenance of some equipment in April, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic coal tar deep-processing enterprises has dropped from a low level, which has led to an increase in the supply of goods in the market. This is another reason for the sudden plunge in the market." Market Senior commentator Shao Huiwen said.
"The main reason for this round of coal tar market slump is still the sluggish downstream demand and the low operating rate of terminal enterprises, which has hindered the shipment of deep-processing manufacturers. Although many deep-processing enterprises took advantage of the opportunity of centralized maintenance in April to try to implement limited production and price protection strategy, but still failed to alleviate the supply pressure in the deep processing market, so the deep processing manufacturers only maintain the rigid demand purchase of coal tar, mainly to digest the previous inventory, the supply of coal tar is obviously surplus in the short term, the supply and demand are unbalanced, and the market transaction mentality is bearish , The wait-and-see mood is strong, and the mentality of waiting for the bottom to dominate the market." Zhang Zhichao, head of a chemical company in Ningxia, said.
Product chain linkage general decline
"Recently, domestic coal prices have continued to fall, some coke companies' profits have rebounded, and the operating rate has also increased slightly, so the supply of by-product coal tar continues to increase. As of the end of April, although the fifth round of coke price reductions has started, However, coal prices have also been lowered simultaneously, so it is expected that the operating rate of coking enterprises is unlikely to decline in the short term, and there will still be pressure on the supply of coal tar in the market outlook." The person in charge of a coking company in Inner Mongolia said.
Shao Huiwen believes that at present, the entire coal tar industry chain has experienced the largest decline since this year from top to bottom, especially the sharp decline of mainstream products in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain, which has reversed the coal tar market upwards, and has a negative impact on the current coal tar dive. The market has played a greater role in boosting. For example, in April, the price of coal tar pitch among coal tar deep-processing products fell by 2,000 yuan, anthracene oil fell by 1,500-1,600 yuan, and industrial naphthalene fell by about 1,200 yuan, which directly suppressed the enthusiasm of deep-processing enterprises to increase the start-up load. Not only that, the market is also constantly bursting out low-price transaction orders, and it is hard to find good news in the market. It cannot be ruled out that there is still the possibility of further bottoming out in the market outlook.
Industry insiders said that based on the current situation of the coal tar market, both the supply and demand sides are in a state of cautious transaction, and there is no obvious benefit in the short term, and there is still room for adjustment in the market. However, with the further release of the inventory of coke enterprises and the entry of traders at low prices, the market outlook is unlikely to plunge again. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on several important indicators such as the trend of the coke market, changes in the trading volume of coal tar, and the increase in the start-up load of deep-processing enterprises, so as to avoid risks and seize opportunities. (Liu Yongming)
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