In the first half of the year, the operating rate of the methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) industry decreased and the export volume increased, resulting in a tight market and rising prices, with an overall price increase of 6.1%.
Fushun Petrochemical MTBE Analyst Zhang Tie: The overall market rose slightly
The MTBE market started from the position of 6680 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year, and finally ended the first half of the year at 7087.5 yuan. In the first half of the year, the low point of the stage appeared in mid-January, and the price dropped to 6275 yuan; the high point appeared in mid-April, the price was 7700 yuan, and the price difference reached 1425 yuan.
In the first four months, the MTBE market showed a fluctuating upward trend. After the market started at the beginning of the year, it briefly dropped to the low of 6,275 yuan in the first half of the year in mid-January. Subsequently, driven by comprehensive factors such as the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the gradual increase in demand around the Spring Festival, and the continuous rise in gasoline prices, the MTBE market fluctuated all the way up. At the same time, the export profit of MTBE has improved, and the ship orders of local refining enterprises have increased, and the inventory pressure of enterprises has been effectively alleviated. The spot supply was once tight. Boosted by the effect of tight cargo prices, merchants actively pushed up, and the price of MTBE climbed to 7475 in mid-March Yuan, turned up again after a short period of consolidation, until it reached the high of 7,700 yuan in the first half of the year.
At the end of April, as the price of MTBE rose to a high level, the enthusiasm for receiving goods from downstream became weaker, and the overall market conditions in May and June went down. Back after the "May 1st" holiday, affected by the wide drop in international crude oil prices, cost support has weakened. In this context, although a number of MTBE devices have been shut down for maintenance and spot supply has decreased, the decline in the MTBE market has intensified due to the sluggish demand. In June, Shandong Minghao, Dongying Shenchi, Shandong Chengtai and many other enterprises started their preliminary maintenance equipment one after another, and the market supply gradually increased. The MTBE market fluctuated all the way down to 7,000 yuan, and finally ended the first half of the year at 7,087.5 yuan.
According to data from Zhuo Chuang Information, the average price of the domestic MTBE market in the first half of the year was 7,193 yuan, a decrease of 239 yuan or 3.22% compared with the same period in 2023.
Jinlianchuang Energy Analyst Wang Yan: The spot supply in the first half of the year has shrunk
The main factors driving the rise of the MTBE market in the first half of the year are that the increase in equipment maintenance has led to a decline in the operating rate of the industry, and the export volume has increased significantly year-on-year, which has reduced the total supply in the spot market.
In the first half of the year, the average operating rate of MTBE enterprises across the country was 46.07%, down 1.70% from the same period last year. From the perspective of the three processing routes, the operating rate of the isomerization device is the lowest, only 39.38%. This is mainly due to the upside-down profit of heterogeneous devices in the first half of the year, and manufacturers chose to stop operations in order to reduce losses. Due to the unsatisfactory profits of the carbon four method equipment, there were too many maintenance equipment in the first half of the year, especially in March and April, the number of equipment maintenance was relatively large, and the operating rate was 44.61%. The start-up of the dehydrogenation unit is relatively positive, with an operating rate of 65.41%. On the whole, the operating rates of the three processes have declined to varying degrees, especially from March to May, which has led to a reduction in the overall market supply.
In addition, in the first half of the year, the import volume of MTBE decreased year-on-year, while the export volume increased year-on-year. In the first half of the year, due to the obvious inversion of import profits in the domestic MTBE market, and the domestic supply basically meeting the demand, the demand for imported MTBE was not large, resulting in a significant decline in import volume, which is expected to be about 1,000 tons, a decrease of about 98% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, there is ample profit margin in export, the window is opened in stages, and some manufacturers are actively operating export orders, resulting in a significant increase in export volume in the first half of the year. The estimated export volume in the first half of the year was 664,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 85.71%.
Ren Tingting, Energy Analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information: The price center of gravity will move down in the second half of the year
Judging from the market situation in the second half of the year, although the macro will give some support to the market, the supply of MTBE is expected to increase driven by profits, while the recovery of demand is relatively slow. It is expected that the price center of MTBE market will be lower than that in the first half of the year.
On the one hand, it is expected that in the second half of the year, manufacturers will start operations more actively, and output may increase significantly. In the second half of the year, Fujian Shengtong's 90,000-ton/year plant and Hebei Xinhai's 100,000-ton/year plant are expected to be put into operation. Although the new capacity base is relatively small, considering the good profitability of the MTBE plant is expected to continue into the second half of the year, profit-driven The lower manufacturers are highly motivated to start operations, and it is expected that the output of MTBE will further increase in the second half of the year, or reach 7 million tons. Sufficient spot supply will lead to increased competitive pressure on MTBE manufacturers. In order to ensure the pace of shipments, manufacturers will most likely adjust prices.
On the other hand, in the context of weak demand recovery, MTBE external demand may weaken. The strong performance of MTBE exports last year continued to the first half of 2023, which played a more obvious role in alleviating domestic supply pressure. However, the current demand shows a weak recovery pattern, and the overall weak international market will have a certain impact on MTBE exports. It is expected that the export volume in the second half of the year will be lower than that in the first half.
In addition, the increase in the replacement of gasoline by new energy sources will further slow down the growth rate of MTBE demand. At present, my country's new energy development momentum is good, and its substitution effect on traditional petrochemical gasoline will be further highlighted. However, about 93% of domestic MTBE is added to gasoline. As the growth rate of gasoline consumption slows down, the growth rate of MTBE demand will also slow down, eventually suppressing the price of MTBE.
On the whole, the domestic MTBE output in the second half of the year is expected to increase slightly compared to the first half of the year, while the recovery of downstream demand is slow, superimposed on the replacement of traditional gasoline by new energy sources, and the relationship between supply and demand is expected to be relatively loose. At the same time, there is also a decline in external demand, which will put pressure on MTBE prices.
It is expected that in the second half of the year, the overall MTBE market will show a trend of rising first and then falling, and the mainstream price range may be 7000-7500 yuan. At the same time, judging from the seasonal law, the high probability of the second half of the year will appear in September and October, and the low point may appear in December. The center of gravity of MTBE prices in the second half of the year will be lower than that of the first half. (Li Dongling)
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