The price of soda ash rose slightly in July due to factors such as the intensive maintenance of the industry and the increasing demand for downstream photovoltaic glass. Industry insiders predict that in August, the maintenance and reduction manufacturers will still be concentrated, and the supply will continue to be tight. It is expected that the price of soda ash will rise further.
Supply decreases, prices increase
Chen Qiusha, a soda ash analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal that as of July 28, the mainstream ex-factory prices of light ash from domestic soda ash manufacturers ranged from 1,950 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream terminal price of heavy ash It is 2200 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton. In July, the price of light alkali increased by 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy alkali increased by 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton. The main reason for the price increase is reduced supply. July is the traditional peak season for maintenance, and manufacturers for maintenance and reduction are concentrated. The production capacity involved in the maintenance is estimated to be about 6 million tons, affecting about 529,000 tons of output. According to statistics from Zhuo Chuang Information, the load rate of soda ash manufacturers in July was around 82.2%. It is estimated that the output of soda ash in July will be 2.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% from the previous month.
"The downstream demand for light ash is average, and the demand for heavy ash is growing steadily. The biggest driving factor affecting the soda ash market in the future is still the supply side. At present, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is at a low level in the same period of history, and the supply of goods is tight. Some manufacturers control orders. 8 Monthly maintenance and reduction manufacturers are still concentrated, and the supply continues to be tight. It is expected that the price of soda ash may rise further. The supply will gradually recover in September and October. "Chen Qiusha told reporters.
A leading soda ash listed company told reporters that the company's product prices follow the market, and for short-term prices, a price adjustment meeting will be held every week. In July and August, the industry is generally overhauled, and the supply side may decrease slightly. In terms of demand, the main downstream of soda ash is the glass industry. In addition to architectural glass, there is also photovoltaic glass. The demand for photovoltaic glass is increasing. These factors may be the main reasons for the slight increase in product prices in the industry.
There will be greater supply pressure in the second half of the year
From the perspective of listed companies, the current Wind soda ash concept companies mainly include Yuanxing Energy, Shandong Haihua, Huachang Chemical, Zhongyan Chemical, Sanyou Chemical, Jinjing Technology, Hebang Biology, Su Yanjingshen, etc.
Affected by factors such as poor downstream prosperity, the price of soda ash will drop significantly in the first half of 2023.
"In the past, when soda ash was not widely used in photovoltaic glass, the price was more than 1,000 yuan/ton. Later, due to factors such as the increase in actual demand for photovoltaic glass and the expected improvement, the price rose sharply, and the highest price rose to 3,000 yuan/ton. Ton. At present, the price of soda ash has bottomed out and rebounded, 2,000 yuan/ton is at a medium level, and the future trend depends on supply and demand.” An executive of a listed company told reporters.
"At present, the industry has not yet released new production capacity. The current soda ash production capacity of Yuanxing Energy is 1.8 million tons, and the first production line of the new production capacity is being tested. When it will be launched depends on the market situation." Yuanxing Energy Securities Ministry staff told reporters.
Chen Qiusha said that the soda ash industry plans to increase production capacity by 7.8 million tons in the second half of the year, and the supply pressure is relatively high. In the intensive maintenance season from July to August, the industry's start-up load rate decreased. After September, the start-up load rate of the soda ash industry is expected to increase, and the industry's supply pressure is relatively high in the fourth quarter. In the second half of the year, the demand for heavy alkali increased, the consumption of light alkali did not change much, and the consumption of soda ash maintained a steady growth trend. In the second half of the year, the most important factor affecting the soda ash market is the supply side. In the context of the concentrated launch of new production capacity, the downward pressure on the soda ash market is relatively high, and the price may fluctuate downward. (Reporter Dong Tian)
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