Analysis of aggregated MDI exports from Japan and South Korea to Southeast Asia in the first half of 2018

1. In the first half of 2018, Japan exported polymerized MDI to Southeast Asia

There are two MDI manufacturers in Japan, Covestro and Tosoh. Among them, Covestro has a factory with an annual output of 70,000 tons in Niihama, and Tosoh’s total MDI production capacity in Nanyang is 400,000 tons/year . In addition, Mitsui Chemicals’ original 60,000-ton/year Omuta plant was permanently shut down in April 2016.

In the first half of 2018, Japan’s exports of polymeric MDI totaled about 100,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, of which 12,000 tons exported to Southeast Asia, basically the same as in 2017, accounting for 12% of Japan’s total exports of polymeric MDI. Japan’s largest export markets for polymeric MDI are China (accounting for nearly 60% of total exports) and India (accounting for 10% of total exports) etc., so the share of other countries and regions is relatively low. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is the largest market for Japan’s polymerized MDI, followed by Indonesia, and the sales volume of the two countries is relatively stable, almost at the same level as in 2017 . In addition, the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand also imported more than 1,000 tons of polymeric MDI from Japan in the first half of 2018. In the first half of 2018, Japan’s sales in the Philippines and Thailand increased by a large percentage year-on-year, while Singapore’s sales shrank severely, with the sales volume slashed by more than half year-on-year. It is worth noting that since 2018, a small amount of Japanese polymeric MDI began to enter the Cambodian market.

Two.   In the first half of 2018, South Korea exported polymerized MDI to Southeast Asia

Table 2. The first half of 2017 – the first half of 2018 South Korea exported polymerized MDI to Southeast Asian countries Compare

There are two MDI manufacturers in South Korea, BASF and Kumho Mitsui, both of which are located in Yeosu, South Korea. Among them, BASF expanded its production capacity to 250,000 tons/year in 2012, and Kumho Mitsui expanded its production capacity to 350,000 tons/year at the end of 2017. Year.

In the first half of 2018, South Korea’s exports of polymeric MDI totaled 120,000 tons, a small increase compared with last year. Among them, 15% were exported to Southeast Asia, about 18,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28%. Different from Japan, although in the first half of 2018 it decreased by 56% year-on-year, South Korea’s polymerized MDI is still the largest market in Southeast Asia, followed by Vietnam. And Vietnam is growing rapidly. In addition, South Korea’s sales in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are also relatively large. Although the sales in Indonesia and the Philippines have decreased compared with the same period last year, they are still more than 1,000 tons. Although Singapore is showing a growing trend, its volume is small. In the first half of 2018, it imported less than 600 tons of polymerized MDI from South Korea. In addition, since 2018, Cambodia has also imported polymerized MDI from South Korea. From the comprehensive export data of Japan and South Korea, Cambodia should be Emerging markets of polymerized MDI will tend to increase usage in the future.

3.  Price trend of polymeric MDI in Southeast Asia in the first half of 2018

Figure 1. Comparison of Polymeric MDI price trends in the first half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 in Southeast Asia

At the beginning of 2018, affected by the tight supply of polymeric MDI in the fourth quarter of 2017, the prices in Southeast Asia The price of polymeric MDI has increased significantly compared with the same period last year. It was at 3150 US dollars/ton CIF in early January, a year-on-year increase of 66%. After the peak season in March, the price of polymeric MDI began to decline, and at the end of March, it fell back to the same price as the same period in 2017. By mid-to-late April, polymeric MDI fell to 2450 USD/ton CIF, down 11% year-on-year. Since then, the price of polymeric MDI has been relatively flat, and remained at 2,325 US dollars/ton CIF at the end of June, which was 200 US dollars/ton CIF lower than the same period last year.

In the second half of 2018, due to the continuous rainy season in Indonesia, Malay Muslim festivals in July and August, as well as Vietnam, Thailand and other places, polymerized MDI remains low. With the end of the rainy season and the improvement of hot and humid weather, the market demand is expected to pick up in mid-September. Coupled with the influence of China’s polymerized MDI “Golden September Silver October”, it may drive up the price in Southeast Asia.