Since August, the markets of propylene oxide and polyether polyols have risen repeatedly. Especially for propylene oxide, the cash ex-factory price of mainstream bulk water in Shandong rose from 11,200-11,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to “crazy” 1,500 yuan all the way to the current 12,700-12,900 yuan/ton. Soft foam polyether also rose from 12,200-12,400 yuan/ton in early August to 13,400-13,500 yuan/ton.
The market in the off-season can still continue to push up. Except for a wave of rigid demand for soft foam polyether at the beginning of the month, this month’s mainstream There are many unexpected shutdowns of the plant, resulting in a tight supply of cyclopropane; the upstream raw material propylene has also risen by nearly 11% compared with the beginning of the month, and it is still at a high level. Therefore, after the demand for polyether has weakened, the rise of cyclopropane is still unstoppable. In addition, due to the impact of the typhoon in recent days, Dongying, Shandong Province suffered sudden heavy rain, and some road sections were severely flooded. The Jinling cyclopropane plant announced that it would shut down the entire line on Monday.
Although polyether was affected by cyclopropane and followed up the rise, due to the limited follow-up of downstream demand after the last wave of rigid demand, the performance was not as strong as cyclopropane, and the profit was hard to say. According to the polyether profit analysis model of Tiantian Chemical Network, the cost of raw materials for producing soft foam polyether from cyclopropylene polyether factories so far is 12942 RMB/ton, an increase of about 10.6% compared with the beginning of the month. If the operating cost of the device and labor costs are added, soft foam polyether Profit margins are really limited. According to the analysis model of Tiantian Chemical Network, the profit of cyclopropane in the same period is stable at more than 3,000 yuan/ton, and it is approaching the 4,000 mark recently.
For propylene oxide, the recent good news comes from the supply level of factories, which mainly reduces the burden of unexpected parking caused by various reasons. The high price of propylene at the raw material level supports it. In the past, the demand for downstream polyether was also a major factor limiting the price increase of cyclopropane. Now that the supply in the market is tight, the feeling of downstream polyether is no longer within the scope of cyclopropane’s consideration.
Figure 1 is the cost comparison between propylene oxide and soft foam polyether recently. It is not difficult to see from the figure that the cost trend of soft foam polyether basically follows the price of cyclopropane. Recently, cyclopropane has risen strongly, and soft foam polyether has struggled to keep up with the rise, but the range is not as good as cyclopropane and has become more and more passive.
At present, the high-temperature holidays of the automobile industry are coming to an end one after another, and the demand season for soft foam polyether is coming, and the demand side will be stronger. The demand for propylene oxide is also expected to be driven. However, it is well known that in the second half of the year, there will be two new cyclopropane production capacity in China with a total of 200,000 tons, as well as the new PO devices will also have a part of the output on the domestic market. If these new additions are launched on schedule, market pressure may rise. In the later stage, there are both long and short factors in the market. How cyclopropane will perform, we need to pay attention to the dynamics of other maintenance manufacturers in the market and the downstream stocking mentality.
微信扫一扫打赏
