BDO market solar term broadcast: Frost’s Descent

Starting from the second half of 2018, the domestic BDO market is like a gray space, just like the frost of the solar term, the overall transaction atmosphere The market price showed a slow downward trend, falling by 200 yuan/ton every month in a row.

Up to now, the BDO spot market in East China is mainly for negotiation and shipment, and the holders are mostly operating to stabilize prices, with a strong intention to raise prices. However, downstream users mainly purchase on demand, and still have a bearish attitude towards the market. The overall demand continued to be weak, and the actual transaction performance was mediocre. The reference price of bulk water in East China is 10,400-10,700 yuan/ton (accepted and delivered). According to the data monitoring of Tiantian Chemical Network, the current domestic BDO cost line reference is 11,180 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches -600 yuan/ton. The main factor is This is due to the inventory backlog of the previous holders and the downstream demand is weaker than last year.

The main factors leading to the compression of profit margins are: 1. Rising prices of raw material calcium carbide and methanol, resulting in a certain increase in raw material costs; 2. BDO in the early stage The overall operating rate of the factory is stabilizing, but due to the concentrated launch of new production capacity in the middle of this year, the market supply is still relatively abundant; The market continues to have a bearish mentality, and the overall demand performance is weak.

Editor’s Outlook: In the future, some manufacturers will arrange parking maintenance plans, which will give the market good news; factories have a strong attitude of holding up prices, and the phenomenon of low-price shipments in the early stage is expected to gradually decrease. Most factories still maintain long-term contracts, and the price of loose orders stabilizes. Downstream demand will not pick up significantly for the time being, and it is expected that the BDO market will stabilize in the near future.