This year polymeric MDI market is really bleak, about Aggregated MDI There are also speculations that the export of aggregated MDI is blocked. Regarding Aggregated MDI in recent months What is the export situation? Tiantian Chemical Network will share some of the data with you after getting the export data from April to July.
1. 1-7 export volume in 2018
From January to July 2018, China exported a total of 368,959 tons of polymerized MDI, an increase of 9.3% compared with 337,718 tons in the same period last year (see the figure below shown). Regarding the sharp increase in export volume in February, an article on Tiantian Chemical Network mentioned that it may be due to regional transfer of goods. So what is the reason for the increase in export volume in April and June?
The editor believes that there are mainly two aspects: one is the impact of the Sino-US trade war. On March 22, 2018, the Trump administration announced a $50 billion tariff on Chinese goods “due to intellectual property infringement issues.” In order to prevent possible trade wars from affecting the MDI market, the market experienced the first wave of feedback in April, and the export volume increased significantly. On May 29, 2018, the United States announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of goods imported from China containing “important industrial technology”. The final list of imported goods will be announced on June 15, 2018. After the trade war has become a certain fact, the market has a second wave of concentrated feedback on the trade war in June.
On the other hand, Wanhua Bosu’s MDI plant with an annual output of 270,000 tons/year in Hungary was overhauled from mid-July to the end of September. This overhaul took a long time and required domestic cargo transfer. It takes about one and a half months to two months for shipping from China to Europe, so there will be cargo transfers in June.
Second, export destination
For export destinations, what has changed in 2018 compared to 2017? The editor sorted out the data of the first few export destinations, as shown in the table below. It can be seen that from January to July 2018, the volume exported to the United States, Japan, the Russian Federation, Brazil, and Canada increased year-on-year, while the volume exported to India, Japan, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates decreased (as shown in the table below ).
The editor also noticed that exports to the United States in April, and exports to the United States and Europe in June increased significantly, which also verified the reason for the increase in export volume explained above.
At the same time, when polymeric MDI appeared on the proposed tax list starting in July, a large part of the export volume to the United States decreased At the same time, the volume of exports to Europe and other places has greatly increased, and the total volume has not changed much. This coincides with our previous prediction that the US market may be protected through cargo transfers.
According to the statistics of Tiantian Chemical Network, since 2014, the export volume of polymeric MDI was greater than the import volume, and the difference continued to expand in the following years . In 2017, the total net export volume of polymeric MDI from China reached more than 300,000 tons. Therefore, the impact of export on the domestic market is also increasing. In the future, Tiantian Chemical Network will provide you with more detailed analysis of the export market, so stay tuned.
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