<b>Sino-US trade war, what will happen in the future</b>

The Sino-US trade war escalated again, 9Month18Japan and the United States announced that 24From 24th 2000100 million products to China Additional tariffs are imposed at a rate of 10%,2019 Year1Month1Day up to1 FONT>25%,"In addition, if China retaliates against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately implement a third phase, which will be about 2670billion additional import tariffs.” Subsequently, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement, “China will have to take countermeasures simultaneously.” It has been more than half a year since the release of the US 301investigation results and the escalation of the trade war. What will happen next? Let me break it down for you here. The future direction, judging from the current situation, most people think that this is a long-term and arduous process. Relevant experts have also given the prediction of the three outcomes of reaching a compromise, continuing to upgrade, and comprehensively deteriorating. Among them, the possibility of reaching a compromise is considered relatively high by most, mainly based on the experience that China and the United States have sat down to discuss in detail in the early stage, and in order to ensure the advantage of the general election at the end of the year, Trump will try his best to ensure the early trade The results of the trade war will appease domestic enterprises and farmers damaged by the trade war. In addition, China has maintained sufficient sincerity in negotiations and consultations. China's thousands of years of Confucian culture emphasizes that peace is the most important thing. As for continuous upgrading,This situation is also very possible, and judging from the current situation, it is exactly the trend. The consequences of continued escalation will seriously setback Sino-US trade and technology transactions. If continues to deteriorate in the continuous upgrading stage, there will still be general deterioration Possibility , Then return to the Cold War era, communication is blocked, each of them will return to their own domestic market, and the operation of global enterprises will also be hindered , But this may not be great. So what is the impact on China's policy, economic development and domestic enterprise development at present and in the future? On the face of national policy As for the trade war, China is unwilling, not afraid of it, and has to fight it when necessary. We have strong economic resilience and a vast market space, hard-working, intelligent and united Chinese people, and the support of all countries in the world that oppose protectionism, unilateralism, and hegemonism. We have the confidence, determination, and ability to deal with all kinds of problems. risk challenges. It is impossible for any external factors to prevent China from growing stronger. China's open door will not be closed, it will only open wider,China will continue to follow the established deployment and rhythm, unswervingly deepen reforms, expand Opening up, advancing the rule of law in an all-round way, and building a socialist country ruled by law. Other relevant experts believe that China“I am the main one”” FONT>'s coping strategy is in line with China's interests. In the face of the trade war, China's short-term strategy is to fight head to head, encircle Wei and save Zhao, that is, promote "From war to negotiation with targeted economic countermeasures ” transformation. The long-term strategy is a combination of rigidity and softness, using Tao to control weapons, that is, relying on reform and opening up to gather endogenous confidence to resist external uncertainties, and relying on active participation and leadership in global economic governance to actively control various tools in the game of great powers. Impact on domestic economy the In the financial crisis of 2008, coastal export companies could not sell their goods, which forced China to adjust its economic structure. After 10 adjustments, the contribution rate of domesticGDP The proportion of China's national consumption is increasing year by year, while the proportion of exports inGDP is constantly decreasing, 2017Only 82TrillionsGDP10%. In addition, some experts estimate that, In the baseline case, assuming that the tariffs imposed by the United States lead to an equivalent reduction in China’s net exports to the United States, then2018 China's economic growth rate will decrease accordingly0.1 percentage point. In extreme cases, assuming that the escalating trade war leads to a loss of 80% of China’s net exports to the US, thenIn 2018 China's economic growth will be dragged down by 0.3 percentage points. Overall, it does not have much impact on domestic economic development. The biggest impact may be on the emotional level, and there is fear that the game between the two big countries may cause social and economic turmoil. Influence on Domestic Enterprises From a regional point of view, The additional tariffs imposed by the United States have a greater impact on individual coastal areas, but have little impact on most areas. As for the trade war that may cause some companies to block product sales, increase production costs, and tend to be cautious about investment, etc., all of these issues will be resolved with the adjustment of enterprises themselves and the support of national policies. ease. Taking MDIin the polyurethane industry as an example, this time it was included in the 2000billion levy list, The editor expressed concern about this. According to the largest polyurethane manufacturer in China, the tax increase has little impact at present, and the company is fully prepared to deal with it. With the upgrade of %, enterprises can also relieve this pressure through other channels. However, relevant personnel also expressed that it would be the best if China and the United States could sit together for peace talks and end this lose-lose friction situation, and the current countermeasures are also helpless. In addition, most foreign-funded enterprises also expressed a relatively optimistic attitude towards China's economic development, and stepped up investment in China. Taking the chemical industry as an example, recently BASF, Exxon Mobil and SABIC All quickly exposed their heavy investment plans in China. The previous news that Asahi Kasei decided to shut down Chinese factories due to Sino-US trade frictions has also been officially confirmed as a false report. The relevant person in charge of Asahi Kasei believes that China's economic growth has brought huge influence to the industry, and Asahi Kasei will further deepen the Chinese market. . So in summary, regardless of whether the origin of the trade war launched by the United States is to reduce the trade deficit, protect its own national interests, or contain China's economic rise. In terms of policy, China will always adopt the policy of fighting and negotiating. In addition to coping, domestic development is the most important thing. Iron needs to be hard. It is emphasizing basic research on core technologies and intellectual property protection, as well as reform. In terms of opening up, China will firmly take steady steps on this road. For polyurethane manufacturers, perhaps this trade friction has little impact on the development of some enterprises, because the products on the taxation list are at the high end of the value chain and have a high value advantage, but they must also be prepared for danger in times of peace. Enterprises need to constantly Shaping and reconstructing new core capabilities to resist external changes.

Sino-US trade war, what will happen in the future

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