Hello everyone~ The Mid-Autumn Festival is coming soon, I take this opportunity to wish everyone a happy Mid-Autumn Festival~
Today, let’s clear up the fog of memory and look back. It seems that a long, long time ago, I talked about an analysis of Iran’s trade. And very mischievously added “(one)” after the title. It’s just that I was too young at the time and didn’t figure out the truth that “if there is one, there are two, and if there is two, there are three”. This will be a series. I managed to dig a hole for myself. Awesome.
In order to prove that he is not a scumbag who does not care about marrying and killing, today I present the second series, Turkey.
As far as our polyether export is concerned, Türkiye is also an important position.
From January to June 2018, China exported 8,605 tons of polyether to Turkey, averaging about 1,400 tons a month. It ranks fifth in the major exporting countries of polyether. According to the statistics of Tiantian Chemical Network, in the first half of 2017, the amount of polyether exported to Turkey was 17,600 tons (the export volume was second only to South Korea, ranking second). Compared with the first half of 2017, the export volume in the same period of 2018 dropped sharply. The market generally said that exports to Turkey are getting harder and harder to do.
And after some research, I found that Turkey’s recent economy is not very stable, and doing business with them is actually quite risky.
In early August, the Turkish lira crashed. In one week, the lira fell more than 13 percent against the dollar. In one month, the rate of depreciation was 36%, from 4.7 on July 11 to 6.4 on August 11.
Is the thorn irritating? Surprised or not? Is it surprising?
At that time, the purchasing agents from all walks of life shot green lights in their eyes, screaming that “the luxury goods in Turkey are the cheapest luxury goods in the world at present”, and rushed into various luxury stores to start their battle.
Of course the above is a joke, but the tragic decline at that time can be seen.
The sharp drop in the exchange rate is the most intuitive signal, indicating that a country’s economy must have a very serious problem.
The mainstream view generally believes that the fuse of this currency crisis was the US announcement in March this year to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. As for the underlying reasons, from Turkey’s loose fiscal policy in recent years to the unstable political situation, there are many aspects involved, which cannot be analyzed in this short article, so let’s not list them for the time being.
Some analysts pointed out that in the past ten years, Turkey has been an economic miracle among emerging markets – in 2011, Turkey’s economic growth rate reached 11.11%; in 2017, Turkey’s economic growth rate reached 7.42%, higher than China’s 6.9% ; In 2017, Turkey’s per capita GDP was US$10,512, ranking 63rd in the world, which was much higher than China’s 71st and US$8,643. It took Erdogan more than ten years to triple Turkey’s GDP to nearly $10,000; but it took only eight months for it to fall to half.
Immediately after, the unemployment rate climbed to 13%, reaching a seven-year high. And foreign capital has also run away, especially in the construction industry, where the negative effects of capital flight are particularly obvious. Some highways, hospitals and airports under construction are facing the danger of being unfinished. According to reports, domestic demand in Türkiye shrank by 60% last year.
The economic downturn of the entire country is one of the manifestations of risk. What’s even more awesome is that just a few days ago, the Turkish central bank made a big move to better interpret the word “risk”-they raised the bank interest rate to 24%.
What is more dramatic is that President Erdogan was still strolling outside while holding a loudspeaker and repeatedly reiterated his consistent attitude against high interest rates.
The market responded extremely enthusiastically to the decision to raise interest rates: the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar quickly rose to 6.02, a surge of 7% in almost 10 minutes.
This kind of unpredictable coquettish operation will inevitably make investors and traders from all walks of life feel that playing games with Turkey is too exciting. It must be a heartbeat to play.
Of course, when the deposit interest rate increases, the loan interest rate also increases accordingly. This series of actions has caused headaches for countries that export to Turkey, and they are immersed in a touch of worry.
The central bank of Turkey has resorted to such a drastic move of “adjusting interest rates”, which shows its determination to stabilize the exchange rate. In any case, after the introduction of the current interest rate policy, Turkey’s economy is showing signs of improvement.
It is understood that Turkey is the largest production base of white goods in Europe, and the local home appliance industry is relatively developed.Among them, the development of the white goods segment is the most mature. Refrigerators, washing machines, microwave ovens, dishwashers, freezers, and dryers are the most sold home appliances in the Turkish market. Moreover, real estate has developed rapidly in recent years.
It can be seen from the customs data that most of Turkey’s imports from my country are rigid foam polyether. As the upstream raw materials of refrigerators, freezers, plates, etc., it can be seen that Turkey still has a certain rigid demand for polyether. After all, last year’s export volume was there.
If Turkey’s own exchange rate can be further stabilized, then the restrictive influence of exchange rate factors on polyether exports will be weakened. At the same time, if the exchange rate can really rise steadily, it can also reflect that the domestic economy is slowly improving, domestic demand will recover, and the demand for polyethers will further recover.
the
the
the
the
References:
1. “Investment in Turkey’s Home Appliance Industry: Opportunity to Set up a Factory or Merger and Acquisition to Open up the European Market” Southern Metropolis Daily
2. “Will Turkey Be the Source of a New Round of Global Financial Crisis” Author: Zhang Jingwei
3. “Turkish Economy: On the Brink of Crisis”
4. “I have confirmed my eyes, I am looking for death!” Turkey’s central bank “slapped” the president in the face and forcibly raised interest rates by 24%~》
微信扫一扫打赏
