Recently, the TDI market has been shrouded in an atmosphere of falling prices. Since mid-August the TDI market has shown a downward trend, and the decline has accelerated in the past two weeks, and the chill is pressing. It turned into a “pit drop” and started a merciless downward path. During the period, the good news brought about by the continuous maintenance of domestic equipment did not give any boost to the domestic market where demand was lower than expected and a large number of imported goods flooded in in the past two months. Under the buyer’s market structure, shipment is the last word, and price reduction is still the only means, and domestic products and imported products are fighting fiercely. So far, TDI domestically produced spot drums with tickets in East China are close to 25,000 yuan/ton, showing signs of stabilization, and the market outlook TDI trend.
TDI is a chemical product with active attributes, the market ups and downs are related to many factors, such as the arrival of imports How much, the overall downstream demand situation, domestic and foreign equipment maintenance, the mentality of the holders, etc. The following editor will write his overall prediction for the later TDI from the above perspectives, for your reference only.
Arrival of import volume
The inflow of Hanwha goods: In early August, with the opening of the domestic TDI import arbitrage window, in the middle and late August As of September 20th, a large number of domestic imports are pouring in. Hanwha’s import volume is expected to be around 6,000-7,000 tons. Around September 7th, with the domestic TDI price decline accelerated, the domestic TDI import arbitrage window was closed, and in September there were Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, port logistics It is expected that the transportation of hazardous chemicals will not be accepted after September 22. Therefore, domestic Hanwha traders rarely receive orders after September 7. Except for some imported goods arriving in Hong Kong next week, there will be a period of time from September 22 to early October. During the vacuum period, almost no imported goods arrived in Hong Kong.
Dow cargo inflow: Sadara Middle East’s TDI device restarted in early September. Due to the relatively long cycle from the Middle East to China, it is expected to produce The supply will arrive in November.
Recently, domestic and foreign installations have been overhauled and restarted
It can be seen from the above table that from September to November, there are more maintenances of TDI devices at home and abroad, giving There must be good news for the market, but the news that Wanhua’s 300,000-ton TDI plant was put into production in the fourth quarter also gave the market a relatively bad news.
Stockholder Mentality
As can be seen from the figure below, domestic TDI prices have experienced several waves of sharp rises and falls this year In Samsara, people in the market have different opinions on the trend of TDI in the later stage. The uncertainty of when target=_blank>TDI devices will be launched has suppressed the optimism of the merchants in the venue, and they dare not make too much inventory.
Overall Downstream Demand
Golden September and Silver October should be the traditional peak season for the downstream, but there is still no obvious recovery. Due to environmental protection inspections, some downstream sponge factories have been shut down. At the same time, the influence of Chinese and American traders has begun to appear. The overall demand is lower than expected. At present, the overall downstream inventory is gradually depleted to a low level. The procurement cycle is approaching. In addition, TDI has recently fallen to some downstream affordable prices. The market The attention of internal inquiries has improved.
To sum up, this year’s Golden September and Silver October events are particularly complicated, with mixed positive and negative news on the market, and the trend of TDI in the later stage still needs domestic The cooperation between manufacturers and downstream demand, as for when to rebound, I believe that the beholder has different opinions, and the wise see wisdom. In my opinion, as the short-selling kinetic energy is gradually released, if the downstream actively covers up positions, it is expected that the market will have a chance to rebound next week!
[Postscript] The section “Kanping PU every day” is a high-quality original column carefully created by Tiantian Chemical Network for you. The content includes the review of the polyurethane raw material market, the forecast of the future market, and the dynamics of manufacturers’ installations, etc. The latest and most dazzling industries Information. thanks for watching! If you have other opinions, please feel free to leave a message, or call the editor.�Sharing and exchange market: 18221824746 (WeChat synchronization: Miss Lin)!
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