<b>Polymeric MDI market is bleak recently, what will happen in the future? </b>

Recently polymeric MDI market conditions are really bleak. From August 20th to September 12th, Shanghai The price of the source of goods fell from around 18,200 yuan/ton to around 14,500 yuan/ton. After a short-term rebound, the price fell again to 14,800-15,000 yuan/ton; the price of Wanhua’s supply dropped from around 19,000 yuan/ton to around 17,500 yuan/ton , a drop of 1,500 yuan/ton. At the beginning of this year, although the industry believes that there will be no big bull market, it should be relatively easy to maintain the price at 20,000 yuan/ton. The price on the spot fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, and the industry was somewhat unexpected, and at the same time, there was unavoidable panic. The editor lists some basic conditions on the supply and demand side from the news, and the market outlook is for reference only.

1. Supply side

Wanhua Chemical: The buyout price for listing and settlement in September is 20,000 yuan/ton, and the supply of PM200 has not changed much. There are rumors of sources of T30 in the venue.

Covestro: At the beginning of the month, it was heard that the ex-factory price was 17,000 yuan/ton. The new price was announced this week, and it was heard that it fell by 1,000-1,500 yuan/ton. The supply side is more flexible.

BASF: The listed price of 9 copies is 20,500 yuan/ton, and the supply on the site is normal.

Huntsman: 9 listed prices are executed at 20,000 yuan/ton. It is heard that the second phase has begun to increase in volume since August, and the supply has increased.

Dongcao Ruian: I heard that the new ex-factory price is 15,000 yuan/ton, and the supply is normal. At the same time, market sources said that Japan's Tosoh's maintenance in September will not affect its production.

Imported goods: The current CIF quotation in US dollars is about US$1,700/ton in China, about US$1,900/ton in Southeast Asia, and about US$2,000/ton in Europe. The US dollar quotation of imported goods to China is already at a low point in the world, but due to the current high exchange rate, the price advantage of imported goods from Shanghai is not obvious. It is heard that the source of imported goods has decreased.

Two, Demand aspect

Environmental protection policy is a topic that has been frequently discussed this year. Statistics show that in the chemical industry alone, 3,500+ chemical companies in Jiangsu and Shandong provinces have closed down, and 100+ chemical parks disappear. The tide of closures caused by environmental protection will not stop in the short term. According to relevant statistics, 5,000+ factories will be closed down in the future, and 200+ parks will disappear.

The supply of 141b is in short supply, and the price surge has continued to ferment since July. The price once rose to 25,500-26,000 yuan/ton in late August, and then entered a downward channel. The current price of 141b is about 23,000 yuan/ton. According to Tiantian Chemical Network, the price of 141b was still around 15,000 yuan/ton in June this year, and the current price is still high, which puts great pressure on downstream costs.

Third, mentality

Since March, the price has rebounded many times, but the price is lower and the time is shorter each time. For the downstream, after so much experience, I have practiced the mentality of letting the east, west, north and south wind, I stand still, and get goods on demand at low prices. If there is no real benefit in the later stage, it will be more difficult to speculate.

Fourth, market outlook

Currently, all the devices are operating normally. In the future, it is rumored that a certain device will be shut down for 2 weeks in mid-September for maintenance by Covestro. These two events should not have an impact on the supply side, and at most will have a short-term boost to market sentiment. Therefore, if there is no update on the device dynamics, the on-site supply will remain normal.

In terms of demand, the performance of the refrigerator and freezer industry is average; affected by environmental protection and 141b, the demand for panels, spraying, and pipe insulation is relatively weak. In terms of exports, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the latest situation of the Sino-US trade war.

Overall, there is no good news for polymeric MDI in the short term. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the manufacturer's installation dynamics, supply situation, and Sino-US trade The latest developments in the war.