Yesterday, propylene oxide ended the stalemate at a high level, and the quotations began to drop slightly. As of today, the ex-factory price of mainstream loose water cash in the PO market in Shandong and North China is reported at 12,850-13,000 yuan/ton. The cash delivery price of mainstream bulk water in the PO market in East China is 13,150-13,500 yuan/ton. Polyether, a downstream product of propylene oxide, also went down with the market, and the quotation fell by 200-300 yuan/ton within two days.
From the perspective of supply, in August, some propylene oxide factories either shut down for maintenance or temporarily shut down due to force majeure. The 300,000-ton unit of a factory in Northeast China has been shut down for maintenance since August 3, and has not been started up to now; the 160,000-ton unit of a factory in Dongying, Shandong Province has been operating at half-load since August 15, and was shut down on August 19 due to typhoon weather. , and resumed driving in early September, and the load rose slowly; Sinopec Changling recently ended its shutdown for nearly three months, and the 100,000-ton plant resumed operation; in addition, Shida Shenghua also ended the maintenance period, and the 70,000-ton plant resumed production. Although Saudi Arabia’s Sadara supply has been halved and imports of PO have declined, overall, the subsequent PO should gradually change from tight to loose.
From the perspective of demand, the market generally reflects that this year’s Golden September Silver October is relatively lagging behind. In the first half of August, there was a wave of small rigid demand, after which the order situation was relatively flat, and manufacturers mostly delivered pre-orders.
Last year’s data trends show that the propylene oxide market has slowly climbed since July, and it surged sharply at the end of August and early September, reaching a historical high at one point. This year, the propylene oxide market began to fluctuate and rise in July, and the overall increase was not as good as last year. It started to trend down this week.
Downstream demand is relatively poor this year. In terms of macroeconomics, the Sino-US trade war has affected the overall economic environment to soften; in the micro PU market, some downstream sponge factories have been shut down due to environmental inspections. Downstream industries such as furniture, automobiles, and refrigerators are relatively flat.
Therefore, in the short term, the propylene oxide market will weaken. However, it is expected that in October, the downstream sector dominated by the automobile industry will pick up, which may boost the upstream market.
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