The traditional “Golden September and Silver October” has just ended. In terms of the performance of the market in the past two months, it has been “a lot of thunder and little rain”. At the beginning of September, the market price reference was 10900-11100 yuan/ton, and the current market price reference is 10300-10600 yuan/ton, with a drop of 500-600 yuan/ton. According to the data of Tiantian Chemical Network, BDOThe current profit and loss line is 11,000 yuan/ton.
Starting from the current market, good and bad news are mixed, and the market outlook is expected to focus on maintaining stability:
1. In terms of equipment: It is reported that Henan Hemei and Shaanxi Fusion Plant resumed operation, and it is expected that Lanshan Tunhe will have a 2-week maintenance in early November; while downstream factories, Nantong Xingchen, etc. THF manufacturers will overhaul the plan, so there will be a small demand for BDO raw materials shrinking. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists.
2. In terms of upstream raw materials: In November, I heard that calcium carbide manufacturers are mostly self-sufficient, and the downstream demand for calcium carbide is not performing well, which is difficult to drive the calcium carbide to rise sharply; the methanol market is down, and the inventory of manufacturers in Shandong and Henan is high, and shipments are difficult. The atmosphere is average, the downstream and trade are cautiously waiting and watching, and the mood for buying goods is not high. I heard that the actual transaction price is lower. At this time, upstream raw materials have a negative impact on the market.
3. Learning from last year’s “insufficient gas supply”, in places that will be affected by natural gas, such as Sichuan and Chongqing, some downstream factories will have a certain amount of inventory in advance, and the demand in some areas will increase slightly. And it has little effect on raising the market price.
Overall, most market players are still on the sidelines about the market trend in November. Factories have a strong sense of raising prices, traders follow the market as they go, the downstream follow-up situation is general, inquiries are cautious, and industry players are generally bearish, and the market is expected to run weakly.
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