PMI falls below the line of prosperity and decline, winter is coming, where will the PU industry go?

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Happy New Year everyone~

Just at the beginning of 2019, there came a (suspected) small article that bad-mouthed China's economic environment, and I always felt a little sad...

On the last day of 2018, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. Data show that in December, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of expansion has accelerated; the comprehensive PMI output The index was 52.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the economic range.

As we all know, the Purchasing Managers Index often uses 50% as the dividing point of economic strength: when the index is higher than 50%, it is interpreted as signal of economic expansion; when the index is below 50%, especially very When it is close to 40%, there is recession worries. Generally, when it is between 40 and 50, it means that the manufacturing industry is in recession, but the overall economy is still expanding. It is leading indicator in a very important subsidiary pointer. In December 2018, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below the boom-bust line, indicating that the manufacturing industry has weakened.

Some comments pointed out that among the published classification items, there are three points that need attention.

First, the import and export indexes all showed different degrees of decline. The PMI new export orders index fell slightly by 0.4 points. Due to the slowdown in domestic demand, the import index fell sharply by 1.2 points to 45.9%. This shows that there are problems with both internal and external demand, which will definitely affect production.

Second, the PMI of large enterprises fell by 0.5 points to 50.1%, which is at the critical point. The PMIs for medium and small businesses were 48.4% and 48.6%. This is enough to show that small and medium-sized enterprises are much more difficult than large enterprises, and the degree of contraction is also much more serious.

Third, the purchase price of raw materials dropped sharply from 50.3% in November to 44.8% in December, and the ex-factory price index dropped sharply from 46.4% in November to 43.3%, both hitting new lows since 2016. It shows that the profits are being compressed so much now that it is not profitable to do anything, and the production and manufacturing have no motivation.

Obviously, there are also certain problems in terms of market demand and enterprise confidence. Demand weakens, orders decrease, and companies naturally lack motivation for development, and correspondingly, profitability will also decline. As a result, the confidence of entrepreneurs and employees has been frustrated and expectations are not strong. Insufficient market confidence will further curb consumption. If people don't buy things, the economic circulation capacity will be limited.

In 2018, the real estate boom declined, the auto market experienced negative growth, and so on, all of which can reflect that the overall economy has entered a tightening cycle. And these have actually been reflected in the polyurethane industry. In 2018, the growth rate of the polyurethane industry slowed down, and the consumption growth rate of several upstream products was basically 2% - 4%. The market generally reflected that the demand was weak. Some people in the industry are pessimistic: 2018 was bad, but 2019 may be even worse.

After writing this, I am indeed getting more and more depressed...

But in fact, there is no need to be too pessimistic. Every dark cloud is always rimmed with gold, because the sun is behind it.

From a macro perspective, when it comes to the polyurethane industry, some original traditional downstream markets may be shrinking, but we can try to find other cakes to eat.

For example, I saw the news yesterday that the China Railway Corporation work conference was held on January 2. The meeting emphasized that in 2019, "National railway fixed asset investment will maintain a strong scale, complete the tasks assigned by the state with high quality and efficiency, and ensure the commissioning of new lines." 6,800 kilometers, including 3,200 kilometers of high-speed rail." The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and infrastructure may be emphasized again to support the economy. Polyurethane materials have long been used in the field of high-speed rail, and the current application is mostly train seats. As for the big cake of railway construction, there are various other fields that can try to use polyurethane materials. To put it simply: for those who are being gnawed, can you find a way to gnaw a little bit more; for those who have not been gnawed, can you find a way to find a place to bite.

The same applies to the entire downstream industry. As a new material, polyurethane has great development potential. There are still so many unknown areas, so many infinite possibilities. Innovate new products and explore new application fields, which can bring more vitality and greater development prospects.

The new year will be a year of crisis and opportunity.