Cost pressure + demand recovery, the domestic HDI market may pick up

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1: Raw materials push up
BASF, Ascend and other major suppliers of hexamethylenediamine, the core raw material of HDI series products, have successively issued price increase letters, and the two companies respectively announced that hexamethylenediamine will increase by 100 Euro/ton and 175 euro/ton, about RMB 800-1400/ton. The main reasons are: the improvement of the global economy, the rise in crude oil prices, the price of butadiene and propylene in the United States, Asia and Europe have increased by 15%-30%, and the manufacturers have basically cleared the previous stockpiles, and the spot supply is tight. At present, the supply of contract goods is the main one, among which the demand for butadiene downstream tires is stronger than expected, and the demand continues to rise. On the other hand, the demand for nylon 66, the most important (accounting for 90%) downstream of hexamethylenediamine, has picked up, resulting in no inventory pressure on suppliers of hexamethylenediamine and driving up prices.
Second: Demand recovery may increase
Entering August 2020, the paint industry has entered the traditional off-season, and the price competition of HDI series products has also become fierce. However, the global epidemic is gradually under control, the economy is recovering, and demand is picking up. The country's continuous boosting policies, such as the extension of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy and the small decline in the slope, will have a positive impact on market demand in the second half of 2020. Relevant downstream: Demand in the construction machinery industry has recovered rapidly, and the operating rate has exceeded 100%. Customers have expectations of price increases in the future market and are actively stocking up.
Third: The price breaks through the historical low
All HDI series suppliers have different levels of inventory in the first and second quarters of this year, and there is a demand for shipments, but in the third quarter, The mainstream price of HDI trimer market ranges from 36,000-41,000 yuan/ton, and the low price has broken through the historical low, approaching or even touching the cost line of manufacturers, and the willingness of each company to continue to make profits continues to weaken.
Based on the above factors such as raw materials, industry demand, and manufacturer situation, the editor predicts that HDI prices may pick up in the second half of the year, let us wait and see.