TDI hot market cools down slightly, where will the future price go?

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TDIThe price is going up strongly

Enter2021年，TDIPrice by 1of the month span>14000/tons rose strongly to3At the beginning of the month20000Yuan/ tons, the increase is close to50%, the reason is mainly due to the following factors:

1.Raw material price rise. Recently, the price of crude oil has been advancing continuously. /span>61.49 USD/Barrel, Brent65.24USD/ Barrel, up year-on-year14.8%, 15.8%. Affected by crude oil, the price of toluene continues to rise, and the offer price of toluene1The month is not enough4000Yuan /t,3The monthly offer price has exceeded6000Yuan/t , the substantial increase in cost supports the high price of TDI.

2.Supply side nervous. Before the Spring Festival, South Korea OCI and Europe’s BASF were in the first quarter. Overhaul plan,Shanghai BASF5%.

Everyday Chemical Industry EditorI believe that the reason is mainly due to the following two points:

1 .The downstream demand has not been followed up

under a strong rise , The hysteresis of the market played a role, and the downstream prices increased, but they did not fully follow up. Some downstream manufacturers resisted the high prices, and the transaction volume declined.

2 .Speculative profit-taking

The price is going up strongly After that, downstream dissatisfaction with soaring prices led to a gradual downturn in trading volume,A large number of speculative profits To avoid The possible risks are quickly resolved and left the market.

Future Price Trend Forecast

For last weekTDIShort-term price drop, Tiantian ChemicalWeb EditorThink,The main reason is that the downstream demand has not fully followed up the situation, but the supply side as a whole Inventory is still at a relatively low level, and suppliers are generally not willing to follow up on speculative orders at low prices. However, it is difficult to solve the constraints of factors such as rising raw material prices, production capacity constraints, major manufacturers' equipment maintenance, and foreign force majeure. Therefore, it is expected that TDIThe price still has room to rise.