The market price trend is slowing down, where does the HDI market go?

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Recently, the skyrocketing price of HDI curing agent market tends to slow down. Many downstream coating customers are somewhat confused about the trend of HDI curing agent in the second half of the year. The editor will analyze the HDI market in the second half of the year from the following aspects.

Hexamethylenediamine is still tight and prices are firm

In the first quarter of the United States, the southern part of the United States encountered rare snowfall and freezing weather. The local factories of the two major producers of adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine, INVISTA and Ascend, all declared force majeure. The force majeure has not been lifted until now, and the load has been maintained at a low level. Maintenance continues ; while Europe's main adiponitrile hexamethylene diamine production unit - the Butachimie plant in France, the average operating rate continued to be sluggish, and it has not improved until recently. The global adiponitrile mainly comes from factories in Europe and the United States. Although nylon and other downstream companies are increasingly resistant to high prices, the supply of hexamethylenediamine is still insufficient at present, and the price is firm and the support is relatively strong.

Downstream Demand Market Outlook

Since the beginning of 21, the price of raw materials has continued to rise, leading to a sharp rise in the cost of coating companies. The main raw materials in the coating industry account for more than 80% of the cost, and various coating companies are also trying to pass on the cost through price increases. pressure. However, the concentration of the coatings industry is weaker than that of raw materials such as hexamethylenediamine and HDI, and the cost transmission is slower. In particular, retail investors such as small customers have poor price negotiation capabilities, profit margins are further squeezed, production willingness is low, and the overall growth rate of the industry is weak and falling. . But looking forward to the second half of the year, the U.S. fiscal policy is active, global liquidity is abundant, and inflation is high; the steady recovery of the European economy will also stimulate domestic exports to a certain extent; It will still be at a high level in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the growth rate of brand paint manufacturers will remain strong in the second half of the year.

HDI supply changes

The annual inspection of the curing agent device of the Japanese manufacturer Asahi Kasei has started this month and is expected to last for 30 days; Wanhua is the largest manufacturer of HDI series in China, and its HDI single device will also start large-scale inspection in July. The expected duration is more than 30 days; apart from the impact of maintenance, since the fourth quarter of 2020, the supply of HDI curing agent has always been tight, the gap between supply and demand has not been repaired, and various suppliers have limited supply at discounted prices, and the inventory level has always been at a low level.

Based on the above factors, the editor believes that HDI curing agents will continue to maintain tight supply and firm prices for a relatively long period of time in the second half of the year.