In the medium and long-term appreciation era of RMB, is polyurethane good or bad?

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In the past two months, RMB has traded against the US dollarThe exchange rate continues to appreciateappreciation. 2021year5month26Day The onshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to the highest level6.3933, created from2018year6The highest record since the month; the offshore RMB also broke through6.4pass , offshore renminbi against the US dollar hit 2018year6New high since the month6.3806.

However, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar may beJust started.

Not long ago,ChinaPeople's SilverZhou Chengjun, director of the Institute of Banking and Finance, said at the Moganshan Conference last month that under the conditions of RMB internationalization, we can’t control people.��Under this situation, the central bank announcedabandoning the exchange rate target, The most urgent practical purpose is to fight against the current surge in commodity prices caused by the abuse of seigniorage in the United States, and to resist the pressure of imported inflation. BecauseRMB internationalization, the United StatesThrough the so-called quantitative easing policy, that is, to start printing money crazilyUS$comeChinese wool may no longer work.

Recently, Lv Jinzhong, Director of the Investigation and Research Department of the Shanghai Headquarters of the Central Bank, wrote that my country, as an important consumer of bulk commodities in the world, is inevitably affected by imported prices in the international market. It is recommended to adhere to a prudent monetary policy, pay attention to the balance of imports and exports, enhance the flexibility of exchange rates, and appropriately appreciate the RMB to resist imported effects.

At present, the growth of my country's imports is mainly due to the rise in the price of overseas bulk commodities. If the RMB continues to appreciate in the future, it is expected that the increase in the unit price of bulk commodities will slow down or even decline , thereby weakening the imported inflation caused by rising commodity prices and the cost pressure faced by my country's import enterprises.

However, althoughThe appreciation of the RMB can effectively offset the rising pressure of commodity prices to a certain extent, but at the same time put pressure on foreign trade exports,Because exports are settled in US dollars, the appreciation of the renminbi means an increase in trade costs. From the industry point of view, in the case of RMB appreciation in different industries,SubjectInfluence degree Also are different.

According to historical experience and analysis of relevant departments,On the whole, industries with limited or expanding overseas revenue indicators, relatively stable gross profit margins, and controllable ratios of foreign exchange gains and losses to net profits have a greater impact on RMB exchange rates“Immunity ”The strongest ability, such as printing and dyeing chemistry Products, pesticides, electric control of motors for vehicles, motorcycles and others, consumer electronics components, panels, small household appliances, polyurethane, other electronic components, paper bags.

Therefore, although the appreciation of RMB will have a certain impact on exports, However, the polyurethane industry is about the RMB exchange ratehas a certain ""Immunity” abilityAlthough exports may be hindered in the short term due to exchange rate fluctuations, the new crown epidemic, and the impact of supply and demand, there is no need to be pessimistic about the future export situation in the long run.