Adipic acid, also known as fatty acid, is an important organic dibasic acid. It is mainly used in nylon 66 (PA66), polyester polyol and downstream product slurry, shoe sole liquid, polyurethane elastomer such as TPU, CPU, etc. Although adipic acid has a wide range of downstream uses and downstream emerging products such as TPU have environmental protection advantages, however, due to the impact of the epidemic and China’s economic situation, the overall downstream industry has continued to slump in recent months. According to the database of Tiantian Chemical Network, as of August 10, 2022, the mainstream price negotiation in the East China market refers to 8700-8900 yuan/ton, and the delivery is accepted.
2020-2022Adipic acid price trend chart
From a macroeconomic point of view, the Russia-Ukraine war continues, and the related heat has become colder than in the first half of the year. Although the supply of natural gas in Europe has been relatively reduced, the cost of crude oil has been significantly weakened compared with the beginning of the year due to the continuous increase of interest rates in the US dollar and the opening of US crude oil inventories. Moreover, due to the isolation and blockade caused by the epidemic, the employment rate has dropped, and the consumer demand for non-essential goods has slowed down significantly. On the whole, the overall macroeconomic environment does not have a favorable trend for the adipic acid market.
From the perspective of raw materials, the price of crude oil has recently been affected by sluggish demand and sufficient supply, and the price of WTI crude oil has maintained a trend of 80-90 US dollars per barrel. Affected by the price of crude oil, the price of pure benzene fell by nearly 2,000 yuan/ton last week. The main reason is that the recent port inventory has increased significantly, and the load of pure benzene manufacturers has continued to rise, and the downstream is unable to accept high prices. Therefore, the raw material side is not good for the adipic acid market.
2021-2022Pure Benzene Price Chart
As for the supply side, the operating load of the adipic acid market has dropped from 60% in early July to about 48% in recent days. And Shanxi Yangmei Coal Co., Ltd. all had maintenance or production reduction actions in July, and Hualu Hengsheng shut down two sets of 150,000-ton plants for maintenance on August 9. But on the whole, despite the positive trend, the overall industry is in a downturn, and the supply of the industry is still high.
The downstream demand side pulp industry has recently experienced a weak price decline, and the market has basically maintained rigid demand production in the off-season. The shoe sole liquid industry has a backlog of inventory, and the peak season has passed, the start-up load basically maintains 50%, and the overall weakness is downward. As for TPU, although this product has environmental protection advantages, the overall domestic product quality has no competitive advantage compared with foreign countries, and the market penetration rate is poor, so the overall demand is still sluggish. On the whole, there is no favorable sign of downstream demand.
Looking at the market outlook, pure benzene has a downward trend due to the continuous plunge in crude oil prices.�The price is expected to return to the stage of 6,000 yuan/ton. And due to the continued sluggish demand, the domestic adipic acid price is expected to fall deeply and stabilize to around 7,500 yuan/ton.
微信扫一扫打赏
