Looking at the first half of 2022, due to unexpected factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its sanctions, the new round of domestic epidemics and its control policies, etc. The “triple pressure” facing China’s economy continues to increase, with both supply and demand declining, industrial production, corporate investment, household consumption, and international trade slowing down, economic growth falling significantly, and inflation rising across the board.
For cyclopropylene to polyether polyols,the demand is weak and the inventory is high, resulting in “falling” every now and then A wave of market;
New orders are hard to come by, and expectations are pessimistic, leading to a situation where the industry has no choice but to “lie down” and “lay down”.
From raw material manufacturers to end customers,As for market expectations, everyone thinks that “all things are waiting to be done” Steady improvement is better than a short-lived “flash in the pan” recovery, but it is just that the inventory is exhausted and the position is covered at the right time. For the polyether industry chain, such a market seems to have become the norm in the first half of 2022. As of now, MountainNeusoft foam polyether loose water The factory price fell from 9800-10000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8400-8700 yuan/ton.
7The month ends with the high temperature of the summer, so I will take you to review the market.
The soft and hard foam industry continues to be weak, and the demand side is still the pinch point for the sluggish polyurethane foam raw material market.
soft furnitureIt is closely related to the real estate industry. From June to July, it is hot and rainy, and the furniture market continues the traditional off-season. The central government continues to promote a package of measures to stabilize the economy, and various localities continue to implement policies to stabilize the property market. The national property market policy continues to loosen the effect gradually. Superimposed on the overall improvement of the national epidemic prevention and control, the demand for housing purchases due to the delay of the epidemic has been released, but the overall demand is far low than expected. Up to now, the downward pressure on the national real estate market is still relatively large, and the market is still in the stage of deep adjustment.
The summer vacation is approaching, and the demand for the runway industry has increased slightly. Not prosperous; orders for Plate pipes have been cut in half over the same period.
Auto IndustryIn a series of preferential policies (including vehicle purchase tax reduction, the tax rate has been reduced from 10% to 5%, and the validity period is June 2022 to December) to continue to expand the resumption of work and production, but on the one hand, the supply chain of the auto industry is long, and it will take time to transmit to the upstream raw material market; The energy vehicle sector performed well.
Some home appliances , such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., have a certain seasonality in sales, and since July 6, high temperatures above 40°C have appeared in many areasWeather, also temporarily stimulated the sales growth of this type of home appliances. In July, the overall refrigerator freezer industry The production chain is weak and stable, and production is controlled.Overseas consumer markets are greatly affected by inflation, the demand for refrigerators is weak, and the export volume of refrigerators from China to Europe and Asia has dropped by more than double digits.
Polyether maintains a downward trend. When polyether fell to a low level at the beginning of the month, downstream bargain hunters covered positions and dispersed into the market. Major polyether manufacturers received orders of more than 1,000 tons, but the sustainability was not high, and the short-lived “flash in the pan” reappeared. In the middle of the month, polyether factories mainly delivered orders in the early stage, and weak demand was still a check point for new orders, and the level of new orders for polyether factories was average. In terms of raw materials, the monthly drop of cyclopropane reached 1,300-1,500 yuan/ton, with several rounds of price drops in succession. In addition to aggravating the pessimism of the industry, the response to the documentary was mediocre. The profit margin of cyclopropane continues to shrink, and the operation of manufacturers to raise prices and maintain stability is short-term effective, but it is difficult to significantly improve the actual demand of the terminal, and “falling” is still the main theme. In the second half of the month, the inventory and shipments of polyether factories were under pressure, and the room for negotiation was further expanded. Some downstream just need small orders to follow up, and some are on the sidelines to avoid risks. The recovery of liquid chlorine at the end of the month, coupled with the price reduction operation of cyclopropane factories (Bohai Chemical, Jishen, and Shida stopped, and Xinyue dropped the negative), drove the price of polyether to rebound within a narrow range.
Looking forward to August, the fundamentals of downstream demand have not improved much; the inventory of polyether factories is generally high, and the supply side is sufficient, and the willingness to maintain shipments remains It is the main rhythm; the raw material cyclopropane is more likely to reduce the burden and reduce production. It is expected that the polyether market will continue to be weak and fluctuate mainly in the range.
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