The epidemic is over and Shanghai is unblocked. It should have been a happy period of resumption of work and production and economic recovery. Unfortunately, contrary to expectations, the core products of China’s resin market are in 6The second half of the month began an unprecedented avalanche of decline. As for the specific reasons, we can analyze them from upstream supply, downstream demand, product characteristics, and manufacturer mentality.
Chinese adipic acid manufacturers’ installation trends
From the perspective of upstream supply,6At the beginning of the month, China’s resin market ushered in a wave of resumption of work and production. According to the information database of Tiantian Chemical Network,AA On the one hand, due to the excessive pressure on the price of pure benzene, manufacturers in order to control costs, the overall operating rate of the industry is not much different from that in early June, soAAThe price drop is not obvious. HoweverBDO, although6 Some manufacturers have resumed production at the beginning of the month, and the overall industry operating rate has not exceeded70%, but to7The middle of the month has reached85%about. In order to make up for the loss,7Major manufacturers had to shut down or reduce production downstream in late JulyPBTbyproductTHF production line,PTMEGThe situation is similar. Manufacturers rushed to start work and did not achieve the desired effect, and finally had to reduce the burden of maintenance to make up for the loss.
ChinaBDOManufacturer Device News
From the perspective of downstream demand, the unblocking of the epidemic did not usher in the expected stimulus consumption. After rounds of epidemic attacks, plus more events that dissatisfied the public during the Shanghai blockade, plus mortgage incidents, repeated epidemics and other reasons, the people have to prepare for various sudden emergencies. &ldquo”Moonlight clan” and “revenge consumption” and other once-common lifestyles have long since become history. To sum up, in the face of insufficient consumer confidence, if manufacturers want to restore demand, they should consider other ways to attack the market instead of blindly expanding production production.
From the point of view of manufacturers, due to the sudden outbreak of the Shanghai epidemic, the originally weak Chinese chemical market has slumped. The major manufacturers and traders have long been impatient and want to catch up with the wave of resumption of work and production to make up for a wave of losses that have been lost for a long time. But no one expected that this sudden wave of resumption of work and production would become the last straw that crushed various products in the face of sluggish demand.
Looking at the market outlook, as market prices continue to fall, major manufacturers have also realized the seriousness of the situation and began to gradually reduce operating rates to control prices to make up for losses. From the full load of the spandex industry during the unblocking period to the recent The operating rate has dropped to75%, then upstreamBDO-THF-PTMEGThe major products in the industrial chain have reduced their burdens respectively or ushered in a new wave of maintenance period. And because the price drop is close to10000元/ tons, under the huge loss of profits, it is expectedBDOThe large-scale production of new devices in the second half of the year will also be delayed, so it is expectedBDOBDOThe price will drop and remain until10000元 /t or so. Downstream productsTHF, PTMEG will also decline to a certain extent according to this range. AAOn the one hand, due to the obvious contradiction between the supply and demand of crude oil, the price of pure benzene remains high, so the price will be maintained.AAThe price will be at9000-11000元/t floats around.
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