As of now, the price of propylene oxide in the Shandong market has dropped to 8400-8500 yuan/ton, refreshing the 2020 No. The lowest price record since the first quarter has driven the price of polyether to drop across the board. As far as soft foam polyether is concerned, the mainstream price of cash ex-factory in Shandong Sanshui is 8600-8900 yuan/ton. So, since the current price It is at a low level and the customer acceptance is also high, so why the orders received by the cyclopropylene and polyether factories have not improved significantly? The editor thinks that it is mainly a problem of weak demand. From this perspective, it is not difficult to understand the unstoppable decline of raw materials. The reason is gone. We know that the troika driving polyether consumption is mainly upholstered furniture (mainly consuming soft foam polyether), home appliances (mainly consuming rigid foam polyether), and automobiles (mainly consuming high resilience/POP polyether).
Of course, no matter from the perspective of the first half of 2022 or the recent June-July, the downstream industry of polyurethane is still operating Not very optimistic, the specific performance is as follows:
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downstream |
2022Year 6- The main downstream market of polyurethane is running in July |
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soft furniture |
Upholstered furniture is closely related to the real estate industry. June to July is hot and rainy, and the furniture market continues to be off-season. The central government continues to promote a package of measures to stabilize the economy, and various localities continue to implement policies to stabilize the property market. The national property market policy continues to loosen the effect gradually. Superimposed on the overall improvement of the national epidemic prevention and control, the demand for housing purchases due to the delay of the epidemic has been released, but the overall demand is far low than expected. Up to now, the downward pressure on the national real estate market is still relatively large, and the market is still in the stage of deep adjustment. |
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Car |
In order to promote automobile consumption, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong and other places have recently launched a series of promotional automobile Market consumption policy, the local market is currently showing a good recovery trend. Traditional fuel vehicle companies are affected by factors such as the slow ramp-up of production capacity of supply chain resumption companies, and the overall resumption of production process has greater resistance. The performance of new energy vehicles was outstanding, with a year-on-year growth of 120% in the first half of the year. The automobile industry has a long chain, a high degree of correlation, and a strong driving force, and the transmission to the polyurethane raw material market has a long cycle. |
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Home appliances (refrigerator) |
618E-commerce promotion festival stocking up, superimposing green smart home appliances going to the countryside and Policies such as the issuance of consumer coupons are favorable, and domestic sales have improved. Recently, the production of the ice-cold industry has been weak compared to the previous month to maintain stability, and production is controlled. Overseas consumer markets are greatly affected by inflation, and the demand for refrigerators is weak. Exports of refrigerators from China to Europe and Asia fell by more than double digits. |
In an optimistic view, consumer demand is expected to pick up further in the second half of the year, mainly The reasons include the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation and the continuous recovery of production order; secondly, the domestic job market is gradually improving, superimposed by the government’s introduction of green smart home appliances to the countryside, promotion of new energy vehicles, distribution of consumer coupons in some cities and other measures, as well as property market sales in the second half of the year. Positive factors such as the expected gradual recovery are expected to promote the improvement of demand in the downstream industry of polyurethane and the improvement of orders.
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