According to the database report of Tiantian Chemical Network, China’s BDO production capacity in July 2022 will be 2.179 million tons. According to the current market consumption and the overall operating rate of manufacturers, the production capacity is completely surplus. That’s why there is a big price drop in the current market. Compared with the end of June, the drop is close to 10,000 yuan. As of July 20, 2022, mainstream price negotiations in East China will refer to bulk water at 14,000-14,600 yuan/ton, and bulk water will be delivered upon acceptance.
2020-2022BDOPrice Chart
In addition, according to the production plans of various manufacturers, the BDO projects planned to be put into production in the second half of 2022 include: Markor Chemical 100,000 tons, Inner Mongolia Huahua Heng 100,000 tons, Ningxia Wuheng Chemical 116,000 tons, Huizhou Yuxin 100,000 tons, and Dongyuan Technology 200,000 tons. Together, the output of 600,000 tons is bound to bring a new round of reshuffle to the BDO market, and the cost and price war is bound to become more intense. Small-capacity manufacturers are likely to be replaced by larger companies with more cost advantages in the increasingly fierce competition. Manufacturers are squeezed out.
BDOManufacturer’s device dynamics
According to the current trend of THF, PTMEG and the downstream spandex industry, the price of THF is basically close to the historical low price in the same period of 2020, when BDO The price is the lowest price in history since 2010, 7,500 yuan/ton. Therefore THF profit margin has already According to this trend, unless the downstream demand improves, the price of BDO should fall to about 10,000 yuan/ton before it can be stabilized. And if all manufacturers start production as planned in the second half of the year, it is expected that the price will most likely be lower than the lowest price in history.
As for PTMEG, due to the downturn in the downstream spandex field, the overall price has also declined to a certain extent similar to BDO, but because manufacturers generally use their own upstream self-made Produce THF to produce PTMEG, the overall price trend is similar to BDO and slightly less related to THF. On the whole, if BDO goes into production normally as planned, the price trend of PTMEG should be similar to that of BDO, falling to the historical low of 18,000 yuan/ton in 2020.
To sum up, if major BDO manufacturers put new devices into production in the second half of the year as planned, the BDO market will usher in a brutal cost competition. Since Tiantian Chemical Network estimates that the current BDO market still has a certain profit margin, and Chairman Deng Huichang predicts that the BDO consumption of various industries will reach 3 million tons in 2025, which is about 1 million tons higher than the current production capacity. It will be put into production on time to force small manufacturers to gain more market share. Therefore, the editor believes that the price of BDO will continue to decline in the second half of this year, falling to a historical low of 7,500 yuan/ton.
微信扫一扫打赏
