As the government vigorously promotes carbon neutrality and energy conservation and emission reduction policies, and the global fossil energy becomes increasingly tense with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Sustainability has become very important in society, especially in the chemical industry. According to the database of Tiantian Chemical Network: the water-based proportion of China’s leather finishing agent industry has accounted for more than 90%, and the consumption of water-based polyurethane in the field of leather finishing agents is expected to increase by 7% annually from 2022 to 2025. As for elastomers, according to the Sandao Consulting Information Database:Elastomers are new environmental protection materials that fully meet the environmental protection requirements of modern humans and can effectively replace traditional materials such as PVC, rubber, EVA, and silica gel. Key materials for industrial transformation and upgrading in the high-end manufacturing field.
It can be seen that the development of elastomers and water-based PUDs has great potential in the long run. However, in the short term, today’s market dynamics may be very negative for elastomers, waterborne polyurethane products and the development of the entire polyurethane industry chain. Specifically: due to the fact that the market demand for various products in the late stage of the epidemic did not rise to the pre-epidemic level with the unblocking of various places; and as various manufacturers responded to the country’s call for resumption of work and production, the operating rate of upstream BDO manufacturers of water-based polyurethane since June It has soared in a straight line, and the industry’s operating rate has approached 85%.
According to the law of the market, when the demand is weak and the production of upstream manufacturers’ products rises sharply, the only consequence is a backlog of inventory, and the manufacturers have to sell at a profit. As for AA, another major upstream product, due to the recent sharp drop in crude oil prices, the price of pure benzene no longer remains high, and the performance of elastomers, the main downstream product, is sluggish due to the impact of the price of BDO industry chain. Due to the decline in supply and demand, the AA market has also begun to fall due to the impact of upstream and downstream, and in turn lowered the market prices of downstream elastomers and water-based polyurethanes.
To sum up, in the short term, the polyurethane resin market will continue to decline due to the continuous downturn of major upstream products in the short term. It is predicted that the waterborne polyurethane and elastomer markets will continue to decline in the near future. In the long run, due to the support of national policies and the shortage of fossil energy, water-based polyurethane and elastomers are bound to replace traditional materials and become the mainstream.
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