Survey on TDI outlook

Since the beginning of August, the price of TDI has risen rapidly, from about 15,000 yuan/ton in early August to mid-September 19200 yuan / ton, an increase of up to 4200 yuan / ton.

Many industry players are more concerned about the market outlook of TDI. Therefore, Tiantian Chemical Network conducted a TDI outlook for 100 senior practitioners mentality survey. There are a total of 100 people surveyed this time, and upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises, and trade personnel accounted for 15%, 15%, and 70% respectively. Among the 100 samples participating in the survey in this period, a total of 72 samples are bullish, 21 samples are volatile, and 7 samples are bearish.

Tiantian Chemical Network’s main views on the market are summarized as follows:

Bullish reasons:1. The fundamentals of the supply side are still good. The factory's spot supply is tight, and the supply is limited, and the attitude towards the market is clear.

2. The stocks in the upper, middle and lower reaches are relatively small, and some downstreams have a bearish mentality at the beginning of the rise and have not stocked up in large quantities. Facing just-needed procurement needs.

3. The prices in overseas markets, especially in Europe, are soaring, and manufacturers are more motivated to export.

The reason for the shock:1. While the market price is soaring rapidly, the risk is also increasing. The industry continues to increase positions cautiously. It is not ruled out that some people start to take profits.

2. Downstream purchases are still average, contradicting high prices, and mainly buying goods for rigid needs.

Bearish reasons:1. Downstream multi-stage replenishment in the early stage takes time to digest. As prices rise, purchasing demand also increases will weaken.

3. As the price rises, the shippers' intention to ship goods gradually increases.
4. Under the background of the global macroeconomic downturn, demand at home and abroad may be significantly lower than expected.
5. Gansu Yinguang15The 10,000-ton plant will restart at the end of the year, and the tight supply situation may be greatly eased by then.