Recent TPU Market Review and Prospect

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1. TPU Market Review

1, review of the upstream main raw material market

Recently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating sideways, and WTI crude oil prices have been fluctuating in the range of US$70-80. The weekly data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) in the early hours of February 8 showed that the US crude oil inventory decreased by 2.184 million barrels in the week of February 3, a drop higher than previously expected; superimposed on the earthquake in Turkey, the Ceyhan pipeline was suspended, which is expected to affect Iraq And about 1 million barrels of crude oil exports from Azerbaijan, 500,000 barrels of oilfields in Norway stopped production due to technical failures, and supply-side disturbances brought short-term rises in the market.

The price of pure MDI is relatively firm after the Spring Festival, and most companies take the initiative to raise the listing price of pure MDI, and the increase is more than 10%. As of February 8, the market price of pure MDI was in the range of 22,000-23,000 yuan/ton. There are three main reasons for the price increase. First, due to the rise in the price of raw material pure benzene, the cost support of pure MDI has increased. Second, the recovery of downstream demand has entered a slow climbing period, and the supply and demand pattern has improved compared with that before the Spring Festival. The third is the optimistic expectations of the manufacturers for the future market.

Adipic acid market price trend is slightly weak recently, and it is in the process of continuing to build a bottom, with occasional rebounds. As of February 8, 2023, the median price of adipic acid in the market is 10,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous month. Currently, the cost support of adipic acid is relatively weak, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, the market transactions are not too strong, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Since February this year, the BDO market price has continued to rise strongly since the beginning of the year. The main manufacturers stop for maintenance and have a strong willingness to raise prices. The downstream mainly buys for rigid demand. Individual traders are willing to stock up in advance, and they have optimistic expectations for the future BDO market price. However, the final application customers are generally not motivated to purchase, and most of them are still in a wait-and-see state. As of February 8, 2023, the mainstream price of BDO market is 13,000 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton.

2, recent TPU market review

Recently, due to the market trend of the main raw material prices is acceptable, with little ups and downs, the main varieties have entered the upward channel, giving strong support to the TPU market price. At present, the mainstream market price of TPU is around 19,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, and has risen by an average of 300 yuan/ton since February. From the perspective of the downstream situation, although the purchasing momentum of the main purchasers of TPU has recovered, it is not yet obvious. The market trading activity has recovered compared to before, most of which are based on rigid purchases, and a few take the initiative to stock up.

Second, the future outlook of the TPU market

At present, the market price of TPU There has been a steady upward trend. This trend is mainly due to the low inventory before the Spring Festival and the firm cost of raw materials. Manufacturers are optimistic about the recovery of the market and expect to adopt price hikes. Judging from the trading situation, the actual trading volume needs to be further restored, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has not yet improved significantly. The entire TPU market has strong expectations, but weak reality looms. It is expected that this situation will continue in the entire TPU market for some time to come. First, between now and the two sessions in March, the people�There is a continuation of the optimistic expectation of continued steady growth. Second, the January credit data has a high probability of far exceeding expectations, which is a leading indicator of the economy. Third, the latest employment data in the United States shows that the probability of a soft landing has increased significantly. Under this background, the room for crude oil to fall is relatively limited, and the cost support of TPU will be strongly continued.