<b>Recent TPU market trend analysis</b>

1. Upstream raw material market

1, crude oil market

During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market went out of a wide range of fluctuations, and finally recorded a decline, maintaining the high volatility since last August. The upcoming EU embargo on Russian refined oil products and the OPEC+ meeting in February are still the focus of market attention. Russia's refined oil export ban and sanctions will take effect, which will lead to tight diesel supply and continued high levels of cracking, which will provide some support for oil prices. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on February 1. Currently, the market expects that OPEC+ may maintain the level of oil production unchanged, waiting for the clear results of the recovery of China's oil consumption and the impact of sanctions on Russia's oil supply.

2, adipic acid market

After the Spring Festival, the adipic acid market rose slightly, and the price improved. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid procurement, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The main driving force for the price increase is the increase in cost-side support and the rigid rise in the prices of major raw materials. On the supply side, the operating rate of enterprises after the year is still slowly climbing, which has limited impact on the market, and downstream inventories are still at a low level, which has limited impact on market prices as a whole. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand in the future, it is expected that the prosperity of adipic acid will gradually pick up after the Spring Festival, and the probability of price increase is relatively high.

3, pure MDI market

Recently, the pure MDI market has been relatively calm, and the price trend has risen steadily, and some manufacturers have begun tentative price increases. On the demand side, the overall purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is still inactive, and it will take time for demand to recover. The recovery of the overall operating rate of manufacturers is slow, and the inventory level remains low before the Spring Festival. In the future, the price of pure MDI is more likely to rise. First, there is the possibility of maintenance of major domestic manufacturers. Second, the relative surplus situation on the supply side has been significantly improved. Third, the recovery of downstream demand is relatively certain.

4, BDO market

BDO prices have continued to rise recently, the overall market atmosphere is good, and the fundamental situation has improved significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, the progress of recovery is in line with expectations. In addition to rigid purchases, additional incremental demand has emerged one after another, which shows that current customers have better expectations for the future of BDO prices. On the supply side, the upstream cost side has relatively strong support, and the operating rate of manufacturers has rebounded, accompanied by an increase in corporate inventory, but it is not obvious. Regarding the future BDO price trend, from the perspective of the same period in history, there is a high probability that it will continue to rise after the beginning of each year, and the current market is continuing its past performance.

Second, the recent operation of the TPU market

Recently, the market price of TPU has stabilized. From the demand side, the signs of market recovery are beginning to appear, and the enthusiasm for procurement in the main downstream application fields of TPU has picked up to a certain extent, especially after the Spring Festival, the order growth rate is obvious. Many downstream buyers have arranged production plans in advance, which is due to the bullishness of the TPU market at the beginning of the year and the reason for stocking up in advance. On the supply side, the operating rate of TPU manufacturers has resumed positively, and some manufacturers have increased their production pace, and they are more optimistic about the future expectations. In terms of inventory, both manufacturer inventory and social inventory are at a low position, providing strong support for the subsequent rise in TPU prices.

Looking forward to the future TPU market price, Tiantian Chemical Network has a view on TPU in the first quarter of this year The price trend is more optimistic. The main logic is that in the sluggish market last year, the expansion plans of the overall TPU enterprises have been delayed, and the production capacity expansion is not as expected. At the same time, due to the sluggish market, the overall inventory of TPU has been running at a low level throughout the year, and the inventory cycle is at a low point. In addition, the biggest highlight of TPU this year, or the main contradiction is on the demand side. According to public information, the current GDP growth rate of all provinces, cities and localities in the country is planned to be 5%, and in some places, the growth rate is much higher than 5%. Last year, my country's GDP growth rate was only a little over 3%. Judging from this year's GDP growth forecast and last year's actual GDP growth rate, this year's market expectations for economic recovery are actually very high, which to a certain extent magnifies the marginal expectations of TPU market participants on TPU prices. At the moment when economic growth cannot be falsified, this will further promote the bullish expectations of the TPU market, making downstream procurement more active.

Recent TPU market trend analysis

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