NAHB homebuilder confidence fell to 31 in December 2022, the lowest reading since 2012 except during the outbreak period, below market expectations of 34, residential Homebuilder confidence has fallen for the 12th month in a row, largely due to higher mortgage rates and high inflation.
Data source: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
As the homebuilder confidence index fell sharply, the U.S. existing home sales contraction storm swept the U.S. property market. Economists at both Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs predict that by 2023, the total number of existing home sales will fall below 4 million, even less than the 2006-2011 real estate bubble burst s level. The decline in sales of existing homes will surely reduce the consumption of rigid polyurethane foam insulation boards used for building insulation, and will also reduce the demand in the home appliance industry. As a downstream supporting industry of the real estate industry, home appliances have been attached to Real estate market development. Refrigerators or freezers are one of the important household appliances that most families must install. The rigid polyurethane insulation foam produced with polymeric MDI as one of the main raw materials has the advantages of low thermal conductivity and high thermal insulation performance. Power saving plays an important role, occupying an absolute dominant position in the selection of insulation materials for refrigerators worldwide, and the reduction in existing home sales will also reduce the demand for refrigerators in the United States.
Data source:Federal Reserve Bank of the United States
According to the month-on-month housing starts and China’s exports to the United States PMDI, the downstream demand for PMDI in the United States has fluctuated and declined this year. Although the new crown epidemic has affected the global manufacturing industry to some extent, due to the increase in disposable income and rapid urbanization, consumer spending has increased. The number of new housing starts in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021, but China’s exports to the United States from January to November The aggregated MDI of Korea decreased by 14% year-on-year, and the aggregated MDI exported from South Korea to the United States from January to November decreased by 22.1% year-on-year. Raise property prices and demand for downstream home appliances.
Data source: U.S. Federal Reserve Bank & Customs Collation
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