In March, the demand increase of the domestic cyclopropane market is limited, and it is difficult to meet the expectations of the industry. Longer, the market buying momentum is still sluggish. Although cyclopropane supply-side installations fluctuate frequently, and news of load reduction, maintenance, and shutdown are endless, although manufacturers have the desire to raise prices, the effect of raising prices is minimal, and it is still difficult to support the continued downward trend of the cyclopropane market. So far, the price of cyclopropane has dropped from 10,900-11,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9,800-9,900 yuan/ton, falling below the 10,000 yuan mark again. So in April, whether the market bottomed out or continued to fall, what do you think?
Supply side：
Yida, Shida, and Zhonghai installations are restored; Hongbaoli and Jishen are still parked; Continued overhaul, Yida and satellites have been lifted, and supply increments are the main focus.
The main downstream polyether demand side:
The flexible foam industry has not improved much, and the support for polyurethane raw materials is limited.
As the main downstream application market of the upholstered furniture industry, real estate has a greater impact on the upholstered furniture industry. From the perspective of sales data, from January to February, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, and the amount decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, which were 27.9 and 27.6 percentage points higher than December. In terms of construction progress, the area of new construction, construction and completion decreased by 9.4%, decreased by 4.4% and increased by 8.0% year-on-year, respectively, which were 30.0, 2.8 and 23 percentage points higher than that in December, and the newly started and completed areas picked up significantly. Overall, the real estate industry has improved, but there is still a mismatch between the consumer demand of residents and the supply of real estate companies, the market confidence is still not strong enough, and the recovery progress is slow. On the whole, it has a limited effect on stimulating domestic demand for upholstered furniture. At the same time, factors such as weak overseas demand and exchange rate fluctuations restrict furniture exports.
In terms of automobiles, the production and sales of automobiles in February were 2.032 million and 1.976 million, respectively, an increase of 27.5% and 19.8% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase. 11.9% and 13.5%. Since the same period last year and January this year were both Spring Festival months, the base was relatively low, and the demand was relatively good under the influence of policies such as automobile consumption promotion and car price reduction promotions introduced in various places in February. Since Tesla announced price cuts at the beginning of the year, the price war in the auto market has intensified recently, and the "price cut wave" of cars has escalated again! Since the beginning of March, the Citroen C6 in Hubei has been dropped by 90,000 yuan, and it has rushed to the hot search. The major price cuts have come one after another. Many mainstream joint venture brands have also launched a substantial preferential policy of "buy one get one free". The lowest price in history dropped by 150,000, pushing this round of price cuts to a climax again. Up to now, nearly 100 models have joined the price war, fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles, self-owned, joint venture, sole proprietorship and other brands have participated, and the price cuts range from several thousand yuan to hundreds of thousands of yuan. The short-term recovery of demand is limited, it is difficult to build confidence in the industry, and there are still concerns about avoiding risks and waiting for a drop. Upstream polyurethane raw material factories are limited in receiving orders.
Inventory consumption in the rigid foam industry is slow, and the enthusiasm for purchasing polyurethane raw materials is low .
In the first quarter, the operation of the cold industry was still not optimistic. In the domestic market, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the early stage of the epidemic, domestic sales and shipments of factories have shifted. Among them, domestic sales of commercial products have declined more, but the performance of end-use households is not satisfactory: overseas markets are still facing Russia-Ukraine conflicts and inflation problems, and food prices are rising. The real income of residents has shrunk, and the intensification of the cost of living crisis has also suppressed the demand for refrigerators and freezers to a certain extent, and the export volume has continued to decline. Recently, the shipment of refrigerator freezer manufacturers has warmed up, increasing the consumption of finished product inventory. However, the purchase demand for production raw material rigid foam polyether and polymeric MDI has temporarily followed up. The situation continues to be good; the orders of styrofoam manufacturers are not good, the raw material inventory is slowly consumed, and the demand for new orders is weak.
On the whole, it is expected that there is still room for downward adjustment of cyclopropane in April, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000-9500 yuan/ton. The key points Pay attention to the dynamic changes of devices and the recovery of downstream demand.
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