Indonesia is the country with the largest Muslim population in the world, and Ramadan is the biggest festival of the year in Indonesia. The time of Ramadan is different every year. This year’s Ramadan will last from March 23 to April 21 in 2023, and Eid al-Fitr will be on April 22. The meaning of Eid al-Fitr to Indonesia is equivalent to the Spring Festival in China. On Christmas in Western countries, the vast majority of Muslims will rush back to their hometowns to spend the festival with their families. Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the Indonesian government has strictly prohibited people from returning home for the Eid al-Fitr for two consecutive years. As the epidemic eases in 2022, people who have completed the COVID-19 vaccination will be allowed to return home.
2023In 2018, with the relief of the new crown epidemic, people’s lives gradually recovered, the demand for travel was also released to a certain extent, and the passenger flow continued to rise. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is one of the most congested cities in the world, with more than 20 million motor vehicles driving on the road every day. Recently, the traffic congestion problem in Jakarta has reappeared, but the traffic jam phenomenon has not been as serious as before the epidemic in 2019. It is expected that during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, there will be a peak of returning home.
Figure 1 Monthly sales of automobiles in Indonesia from January 2021 to January 2023 (unit: unit)
A recent survey of more than 2,000 Indonesians by global advertising technology company The Trade Desk in conjunction with YouGov revealed that 88% of Indonesians plan to Shop this Ramadan. Before the Tunjangan Hari Raya (Tunjangan Hari Raya) payment, more than 50% of Indonesian consumers had pre-purchased big-ticket items such as motorcycles, cars and household appliances in preparation for Ramadan. Looking back on the situation in 2022, as Eid al-Fitr approaches, Indonesian automakers will offer unprecedented discounts, just like China’s Double Eleven. The most popular of these is the IIMS Auto Show in Kemayoran, Jakarta. At the auto show, most auto brands offer promotional activities to attract potential consumers. Participating automakers are not limited to Indonesia, but also include Japan, South Korea and China.
In order to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, people Start finding and buying Ramadan products from a month ago. Out of the need to return to their hometowns to reunite with their families, people’s willingness to buy cars has also become stronger. From the data for 2021 and 2022, it can be seen that car sales in March increased by 72.6% and 21.3% month-on-month respectively. It is expected that Indonesian car sales in March this year will also usher in a surge. The automobile industry is one of the important downstream industries of polyurethane. The applications of polyurethane soft foam polyether in automobiles mainly include: sun visors in automobiles, interior door panel skin liners, gaskets and strips, ceiling linings, carpet backings, Seat cushions, backrests, headrests. During the Ramadan festival, some marketing measures of auto merchants will also promote the growth of auto sales and further increase the consumption of polyurethane.
Figure 2 Price trend of flexible foam polyether in Indonesia and Southeast Asia from 2021 to 2023 (unit: USD/ton)
Affected by the epidemic, from 2021 onwards, the price of soft foam polyether in Indonesia will show a downward trend as a whole. Entering 2023, the cost of raw materials will increase, and the price of soft foam polyether will rise under pressure. It is expected that the pre-holiday preparations in March will moderately drive downstream consumer demand.The price of ether may continue to rise.
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