The decline accelerated, and the TDI market turned?

FebruarySince,DomesticTDI market overall weak decline：

First monthThe supply side of TDI remains strong, but the downstream demand is not as good as expected, which makes the price of TDI high and unaffordable, and the marketAfter the stalemate Started to fall weakly. MonthOut,TDI factory inventory without pressure The market has a firm attitude, but it is still difficult to effectively stimulate the market. The main reason is that it is difficult to see the concentrated large orders downstream during the month, and the small orders just need to enter the market. In addition, some profit-making costs come from before the Spring Festival. Under the pressure of shipments, profit-making takes the lead. Since the beginning of the first ten days, the TDI downward channel has opened, and the market price has continued to fall. As the end of the month draws near, with the continuous depletion of profit margins and the strong supply of TDI, middlemen are afraid that factories will make high losses, and the low prices in the market will decrease, leading to a slight rebound in offers from industry players. At the end of the month, BASF’s monthly settlement was lower than market expectations, and the trade mentality changed rapidly. Subsequently, Wanhua Chemical, Covestro, and Cangzhou Dahua listed and settled prices/Guiding prices have been issued one after another, generally lower than the industry’s expectations, the bullish power in the market has basically disappeared, and they turned to look for support downwards, and the quotations fell rapidly.

Closing3month3Day, the average price in East China market is at18600~19000元/t Left and right, since2At the beginning of the month 20500~21000元/tons fell nearly2000元/t. where only 2month27Day to 3month 3 Within a week, the decline reached800 元/t.

Figure1 2023year2month1day~3month3RihuadongTDIAverage market price (unit: yuan/t)

expected domestic TDI market in Marchfall After stabilizing. At present the overall performance of the TDI supply side is still relatively strong, Basf and Cangzhou Dahua are expected to overhaul, and Xinjiang Juli is running at reduced load,Gansu Yinguang still has no clear restart news, follow-up supply side The support is unchanged. However, the downward channel of the market has been opened, and the downstream may take orders in advance under the downtrend, and generally continue to counter-offer and lower the price, and the intended price is low. ButWith the economyRecovery higher than expected，Demand may gradually pick up,The TDI market still has the power to recover and rebuild inventory,Therefore, the decline is expected to be limited, or will be in 18000 yuan / ton near the support.

an style=”font-family:Arial”>,Demand may gradually pick up,The TDI market still has the power to recover and rebuild inventory,So it is expected that the decline will be limited, or will be in Support was obtained near 18,000 yuan/ton.