“ This is a The best of times was also the worst of times"
“ This is a The age of wisdom is also a foolish age"
“ This is a A time of trust is also a time of doubt"
“ This is hope The spring of despair is also the winter of disappointment"
I think Charles Dickens' "A Tale of Two Cities" The passage in this article is the most appropriate interpretation of the three years of the epidemic.
2022 On February 24, 2010, Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine, marking the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the year when the Russia-Ukraine war continued to escalate and friction, the European economy suffered multiple shocks, the people and enterprises experienced unprecedented difficulties, and the fields of energy, industry, people's livelihood, and environmental protection frequently turned on "red lights". Although the European Union has implemented a package of economic sanctions to significantly reduce exports to Russia, and at the same time released an energy independence plan to cut two-thirds of the import of Russian natural gas through various methods of "opening up sources of income and reducing expenditures", European energy prices have soared due to the backlash effect of the sanctions , Inflation is high, enterprises suffer huge losses, people's real wages have shrunk severely, and purchasing power has declined. Affected by the security of energy supply, the EU has frequently "backed the wheel" on the issue of emission reduction. Last winter, several European countries that had vigorously called for coal to be abandoned have reopened coal power plants. France, Germany, Belgium and other countries decided to restart or extend the service time of nuclear reactors.
As inflationary pressures persist, the ECB says it will continue to tighten monetary policy, which will weigh on business activity and affect investment, further hampering European Economic recovery. According to the latest data released by Eurostat, the number of EU companies filing for bankruptcy in the fourth quarter of 2022 hit a record high, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.8%, reaching the highest level since records began in 2015.
The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, especially severely affected by the national property market regulation and financial policies. In the past, real estate companies that relied too much on financial leverage Enterprises have been "thundered" in the "de-financialization" of real estate in the past two years. Considering the important role of real estate in economic operation, its continuous decline has caused an all-round impact on investment, consumption, finance, etc., and has become an important reason for dragging down economic growth. Take Sweden as an example. As rising borrowing costs and declining purchasing power put pressure on consumption, the Swedish real estate market industry is not optimistic. According to the Swedish Credit Information Corporation (UC), the SwedishThe National Housing Board estimates that housing starts will drop 44% this year to 33,000 units, while construction bankruptcies are up nearly 50% from January.
The trend of the real estate industry is closely related to the consumption of polyurethane. Affected by the downturn in real estate, the prices of polyether, TDI and MDI, the raw materials of polyurethane in the European market, all have different levels As of now, the spot price of TDI has dropped from €3500/ton in January 2023 to €3200/ton; polymeric MDI has dropped from €2350/ton to €2200/ton; soft foam polyether has dropped from €2000/ton /t fell to €1850/t.
From another point of view, the Russo-Ukrainian War has further opened up the "gap" in China's foreign trade of polyurethane raw materials. According to the statistics of Tiantian Chemical Network , In 2022, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia will import less TDI, MDI and polyether from Europe, and instead import directly or indirectly from Asian manufacturers. The export volume from China is as follows:
Looking forward to 2023, the epidemic prevention policy is being adjusted in a scientific and precise direction, the impact of the epidemic on the economy may gradually weaken, and consumption is expected to recover. It is expected that under the dual effects of domestic demand recovery and continued loose monetary policy this year, the prices of raw materials and bulk commodities will rise, further stimulating the demand for polyurethane.
微信扫一扫打赏
