From5Since January, under the pressure of the expected production of Wanhua Fujian and Gansu Yinguang,TDI prices fell rapidly from the high point of 20,500 yuan/ton. On May 22, Wanhua Chemical (Fujian) Co., Ltd.’s 250,000-ton/year TDI plant produced qualified products and achieved a one-time start-up success. 5month 26Day, Yinguang GroupThe TDI production line resumed production smoothly. TDIThe price will also continue to bottom out: to At the end of May, the average price in East China market has dropped to 16000 yuan/ton, and the price of some domestic bulk water has even dropped to 15000元/about tons, the drop reached nearly 55000RMB /Ton.
With the rapid price drop, some downstream customers choose Low-cost warehouse building, more shipments of low-priced domestic products, the overall spot supply in the market is showing a trend of tightening, coupled with the slow launch of new products, the industry’s spot positions are not high, the pressure on shipments in the trade sector is small, and the mentality of selling at low prices is low Prominent, the market price slightly upward repair. Covestro’s guidance price was subsequently raised, merchants’ offers continued to rise along with the trend, and the focus of market trading continued to rise. Facing the price rebound, the downstream market is more cautious, the reaction to the price increase is relatively flat, and the wait-and-see is the main focus. The actual order just needs to be followed up, and the buying momentum has weakened compared with the previous period.
But6In the past month, there have been frequent positive news in the market: it is rumored that Yinguang products are still being debugged and have not yet been put on the market ;Wanhua Fujian plant has not yet run at full capacity, and it is rumored that it will be shut down for two weeks at the end of the month for commissioning; Shanghai BASF6The maintenance will start for one month in the middle of the month; it is rumored that Shanghai Covestro also has a maintenance plan…Actuated by a series of good news, the short-term supply is expected to continue to tighten, and the overall market is not much in stock. In addition, Covestro’s price has increased, and traders have lowered their intention to sell lower. , the offer generally rises accordingly,TDIThe market continues.
Figure1：2023year5month15Day ~2023 year6 month15Japanese East China MarketTDI average price (yuan /t)
However, although the short-term supply is obviously closed Tight, but in the long run, domestic TDIArranging supply capacity Significantly improved, and currentlydownstreamEntering the foam industryLow Season,Demand reduction is obvious, and in the early stageWhen the price is lowThere are many downstream stocks,Low willingness to continue. I think that in the short termInnerTDI marketStill inStrong finishingmain, butUnder the overall balance of supply and demand fundamentals,grow or CompareLimited, and lateGansu Yinguang, WanhuaFujianSupply TrendStable, with the completion of the Shanghai factory maintenance, the market is stockedAgainDownside risk.
span style=”font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif”>Still inStrong finishing main, but Under the overall balance of supply and demand fundamentals, grow orCompareLimited, and lateGansu Yinguang ,WanhuaFujian Supply trendStable, with the end of the Shanghai factory overhaul, the market is againDownside risk.
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